Key Takeaways
What are the most obvious signs of a crypto bull run?
New highs for Bitcoin, combined with heavy trading volume for weeks or months together, denote a bull run in progress.
For people not in crypto, can signs of a bull run stand out?
Certainly! News such as a pro-crypto U.S. President launching the TRUMP memecoin, crypto acts discussed in the Senate, or the sale of a $69 million digital art piece can be considered bull run signs.
How can non-crypto people tell if a Bitcoin [BTC] and crypto market bull run is ongoing? There is one underway, and that is pretty obvious to people in crypto.
Though some might argue what stage of a bull run, or even if it is just after a bull run’s peak, there are some telling signs.
To start, a bull run is not just when the price goes up. Rather, it should go steadily up for months together. The price should break above a key long-term swing high and keep trending higher.
Of course, this key swing high can be subjective.
The current bull run began roughly in October 2023, six months before the 2024 Bitcoin halving event, which was in April. The previous bull run began roughly five months after the halving in May 2020.
Hence, the halving is not necessary to begin a bull run.
So, how do you know when a crypto bull run is underway?
Source: Google Trends
One of the biggest giveaways is the rise of popularity of search words such as “Bitcoin” and “crypto”. According to Google Trends chart above, November 2024 saw searches for “Bitcoin” form a sizable peak.
March 2024 also saw a sizable uptick in interest, as did the first half of 2021.
However, this is something people in crypto like to keep an eye on.
For non-crypto folks, this uptick in popularity would be visible through other means. Crypto will feature on major financial news outlets and even in general news.
In January 2024, the U.S. SEC approved spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds. The news was a huge boost for crypto, legitimizing the asset class in the eyes of traditional finance and TradFi investors.
A year later, President Donald Trump assumed office, and crypto had been a talking point during the election. Three days before his inauguration, the memecoin Official Trump [TRUMP] was launched.
This was unprecedented, even for a pro-crypto President.
Mid-July saw the arrival of Crypto Week, when the House of Representatives considered and eventually passed the GENIUS Act, CLARITY Act, and the Anti-CBDC Surveillance State Act.
The current cycle also saw a flurry of news related to the acquisitions by digital asset treasury companies
Strategy [MSTR] for Bitcoin, BitMine [BMNR] for Ethereum, and Forward Industries [FORD] for Solana [SOL], to name some leading treasury holders of respective assets.
The explosion in popularity of a niche technological development can also bring the public’s attention to crypto. Last cycle, it was the rise of NFTs.
The interest peaked when the artist Beeple sold an NFT for $69 million. One of the expansions this cycle has been AI Agent tokens.
Source: Santiment
Another clear sign of a crypto bull run is new all-time highs and increased trading volume in spot and derivative markets.
This is not something people not in crypto will be looking at, of course, but for those working in the industry or interested in crypto, it is a deeply held belief that volume never lies.
Honorary mentions for signs of a crypto bull run
An honorary mention for clear signs of a crypto bull run would be increased social media engagement on Bitcoin’s market cap, overtaking popular assets. The most recent victim for BTC this cycle was Meta.
This talk would usually revolve around the age-old question in crypto. When will Ethereum flip Bitcoin? When will a major blockchain token flip its rival Ethereum?
The public might also see increased calls, usually on social media, for an asset to be the next 10x, 20x, or 100x token.
The recent furor around Aster [ASTER] and whether it can overcome Hyperliquid [HYPE] to take the seat of leading decentralized exchange is a debate that is only possible during bull runs.
In bear markets, though, the real protocols quietly build, but there isn’t enough volume or bullish sentiment to fuel widespread debate and spark major FOMO.