Bitcoin opened the year trading above the $93,000 level, offering bulls a brief sense of relief after weeks of heavy consolidation and persistent selling pressure. The move higher suggests that buyers are still active at key demand zones and willing to defend prices above the psychological $90,000 mark. Short-term momentum has improved, and price action is stabilizing after the sharp drawdown seen late last year. However, despite this early show of strength, the broader market structure remains fragile.
Many analysts continue to warn that the dominant trend is still tilted to the downside. Bitcoin remains below several critical structural levels, and upside attempts have yet to invalidate the broader corrective phase. In this context, renewed volatility should not be ruled out, especially as liquidity conditions and on-chain behavior remain mixed.
Adding to this cautious outlook, top analyst Darkfost highlights a notable on-chain development: Galaxy Digital has moved more than 3,200 BTC in recent transactions. Large transfers from institutional entities often attract close scrutiny, as they can signal portfolio rebalancing, liquidity management, or preparation for market activity. While such movements do not automatically imply imminent selling, they tend to increase short-term uncertainty when the market is already sensitive.
Institutional Exchange Inflows Raise Short-Term Supply Risk
According to Darkfost’s analysis, a portion of the Bitcoin recently moved by Galaxy Digital has already reached major centralized exchanges, including Binance, Bybit, and Coinbase. Notably, roughly 560 BTC—worth close to $50 million—were transferred to exchanges in a single day. In on-chain terms, this type of movement is significant because transfers to exchanges typically increase the probability that coins are being prepared for sale, hedging, or liquidity provision.
In the current market context, these flows carry added weight. Bitcoin is attempting to stabilize above key psychological levels, but overall sentiment remains cautious, and liquidity conditions are still tight. When large holders send coins to exchanges during such phases, it often introduces short-term supply risk, as even partial selling can weigh on price if spot demand is not strong enough to absorb it.
However, it is important to avoid overinterpreting a single data point. Institutional entities like Galaxy Digital manage large, diversified strategies that can include OTC sales, derivatives hedging, or internal reallocations. Not all exchange inflows result in immediate spot selling. That said, the timing is notable: these transfers are occurring while Bitcoin is still struggling to reclaim major resistance levels.
From a market perspective, this behavior reinforces a cautious stance. It suggests that some large players may be taking advantage of the recent rebound to reduce exposure or manage risk, rather than aggressively accumulating. As a result, continued monitoring of exchange inflows and follow-through selling pressure will be critical in assessing whether this rebound can sustain or faces renewed downside pressure.
Bitcoin Consolidates As Bulls Test Structural Resistance
Bitcoin’s weekly chart shows a market attempting to stabilize after a sharp corrective phase, with price now consolidating around the $93,000–$94,000 zone. The recent rebound has allowed BTC to reclaim territory above the weekly 50-period moving average, which currently acts as short-term dynamic support. This recovery signals that buyers are still active, particularly after the late-2025 sell-off pushed price toward the $85,000–$88,000 region.
However, the structure remains mixed. Bitcoin is still trading below the declining weekly 100-period moving average, a level that has historically acted as a trend-defining resistance during transitional phases. The failure to reclaim this moving average on a weekly close suggests that bullish momentum, while improving, is not yet strong enough to confirm a full trend continuation.
The 200-period moving average remains far below the current price, reinforcing that the broader macro uptrend is intact, but near-term conditions remain fragile.
Volume has increased modestly during the rebound, indicating participation, though not at levels typically associated with strong breakout phases. This supports the view that the move higher may still be corrective rather than impulsive.
Bitcoin appears to be in a consolidation-to-recovery phase. Sustained acceptance above the $95,000–$100,000 zone would be required to shift the structure decisively bullish. Until then, price action suggests cautious optimism rather than confirmation of a renewed uptrend.
Featured image from ChatGPT, chart from TradingView.com
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