Key Insights:
- Bitcoin sentiment is at “peak FUD” with an almost even split between bullish and bearish outlooks.
- A recent poll shows that 50.2% of traders expect Bitcoin to drop to $94,000, while 49.8% expect a climb to a new all-time high of $114,000.
- Despite the overall bearish retail sentiment, whale investors are steadily accumulating Bitcoin, which tends to come before bullish rallies.
Bitcoin’s charts have become a battleground for bulls and bears, and sentiment is now split down in the middle. A recent poll conducted by crypto analyst Matthew Hyland shows that traders are nearly evenly divided over Bitcoin’s next major move.
Around 50.2% expect the price to fall to $94,000, while 49.8% believe it will climb to $114,000 and set a new all-time high.
Bitcoin, on one hand, is trading sideways near the $104,500 level. On the other hand, the market itself is caught in a holding pattern. This uncertainty is evident across both retail sentiment, institutional behavior, technical indicators and macroeconomic conditions.
Here’s a look at the different forces controlling Bitcoin’s future in the short term.
Bitcoin Stuck in Neutral: $94K or $114K?
Bitcoin’s sideways price movement has left traders guessing. A drop to $94,000 would stand as a 10% pullback from current levels. In contrast, a move to $114,000 would stand as a new all-time high, which is just above the previous record of $111,940 set on May 22.
What comes next for #BTC ? (Currently $104k)
— Matthew Hyland (@MatthewHyland_) June 18, 2025
Even though BTC briefly reclaimed the $110,000 level on June 11, the geopolitical tensions between Iran, Israel and the United States has caused a pullback to $103,000.
As of now, the cryptocurrency is trading around $104,600, and is down just over 2% over the last month. This kind of stagnation has dulled the overall sentiment in the market.
Retail Sentiment Is Slipping
On social media, bearish sentiment has started to rise. According to Santiment, the ratio of bullish to bearish comments about Bitcoin has hit near equals.
At the time of writing, there are just 1.03 bullish comments for every 1 bearish one. This stands as the weakest bullish bias observed since early April when Donald Trump’s tariff comments spooked the markets.
According to Brian Quinlivan, Santiment’s marketing director, this level of FUD tends to come before a massive price rebound.
Updates from Quinlivan, Source: Santiment
Historically, when retail sentiment turns bearish, the markets tend to enter a surprise move to the upside. This said, it is far from guaranteed, but some hope is worth having.
Whale Accumulation vs. Retail Selling
Despite the caution from the retailers, the whales appear to be showing signs of quiet confidence.
Over the past 10 days, the number of wallets holding more than 10 BTC has increased by 231. In comparison, more than 37,000 wallets holding between 0.001 and 10 BTC have sold their holdings and exited the market.
The whale-shrimp divergence, Source: Santiment
This divergence indicates that large investors may be taking advantage of the current lull to accumulate more Bitcoin. As retail participants pull back, institutional and high-net-worth players are stepping in. Again, this is a pattern that has historically come before major rallies.
ETF Inflows Offer a Glimmer of Hope
Even as sentiment is cooling rapidly, the appetite for Bitcoin exposure via the U.S.-based spot ETFs is still strong. On Wednesday, these ETFs saw over $388 million in net inflows, in eight straight days of fresh capital.
This consistent inflow of institutional interest may help to stabilize prices and provide the momentum the market needs for another move to the upside.
While Bitcoin’s sentiment is hard to judge from ETF inflows alone, it does show a great deal of long-term confidence in Bitcoin. This is especially true for investors looking to hold through volatility rather than trade in and out of positions.
At the time of writing, Bitcoin is currently standing at one of its biggest inflection points. Its price is now hovering around $104,500, and the next move could either take it to fresh highs at $114,000 or pull it down below $94,000.
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