Key Takeaways
- Bitcoin hits $118K as whales and retail activity rise, yet long-term holders remain cautious. Low euphoria and strong fundamentals suggest a sustainable rally, with short squeezes possibly fueling further upside.
Bitcoin [BTC] has reached a new all-time high above $118K, yet long-term holders appear less euphoric compared to past cycles.
Glassnode data shows the Long-Term Holder Net Unrealized Profit and Loss (NUPL) metric was at 0.69, at press time, staying below the 0.75 “euphoria” threshold.
Notably, this cycle has seen just ~30 days above that mark, versus 228 days during the previous cycle.
Therefore, despite surging prices, investors remain cautious, suggesting profit-taking has not yet intensified.
This restraint could reflect a broader sentiment of uncertainty about whether the rally can sustain momentum or if a correction looms.
Source: X/Glassnode
Are dormant holders still holding back despite recent gains?
The latest rise in the Supply-Adjusted Coin Days Destroyed (CDD) by 3.21% indicates a slight uptick in coin movement from older wallets.
However, this mild increase remains low relative to historical spikes observed during full-blown bull markets.
This suggests that most long-term holders continue to sit on their coins, showing resilience despite new price highs. While some older coins are being spent, the majority remain inactive.
This restrained behavior reinforces the thesis that significant distribution has not yet occurred, keeping the market structurally strong from a supply perspective.
Source: CryptoQuant
Is growing user activity the silent driver behind Bitcoin’s surge?
The Bitcoin network has seen a notable uptick in activity, with a 16.22% increase in New Addresses and a 20.18% rise in Active Addresses over the past seven days.
Even more striking, zero balance addresses surged by 33.67%, as of writing, indicating considerable movement and user engagement.
These metrics suggest increased interest and onboarding, likely driven by rising prices and market buzz.
Therefore, the expanding address base reflects organic growth in user activity, providing a healthy foundation for the ongoing rally, even if price action remains the primary narrative.
Source: IntoTheBlock
Could rising whale activity signal a bigger move ahead?
Transaction counts for transfers above $10 million have increased by 125.89%, pointing to surging whale and institutional activity.
Other high-value bands such as $10K–$1M also saw double-digit gains. Therefore, this trend indicates growing confidence from deep-pocketed players who tend to lead significant market cycles.
Historically, a spike in large transactions has preceded major directional shifts. This accumulation behavior could reflect positioning ahead of a potential breakout continuation, especially if retail sentiment catches up.
Source: IntoTheBlock
Will bearish traders fuel the next leg up for Bitcoin?
The Long/Short (account) ratio on Binance stood at 0.47, at press time, with 67.83% of traders holding short positions.
This heavily skewed bearish outlook sets the stage for potential short squeezes, especially if price momentum accelerates.
Historically, such imbalances have often led to violent upside rallies, triggered by forced short liquidations.
Therefore, the bearish tilt among retail traders may ironically serve as fuel for the next breakout, provided bulls continue to maintain buying pressure and reclaim key levels.
Source: CoinGlass
Can Bitcoin maintain its bullish momentum without triggering mass euphoria?
Bitcoin’s rally past $118K has not triggered widespread euphoria, with long-term holders remaining cautious.
Network activity and whale transactions reflect strong fundamentals, while the dominance of short positions may fuel volatility.
Despite soaring prices, most investors are not rushing to exit. If sentiment shifts and retail joins the momentum, Bitcoin could extend its gains.
Until then, restrained enthusiasm might continue to support a more sustainable uptrend.