AAVE Price Analysis: $323 Hold Despite TVL Surge and V4 Upgrade Momentum


AAVE Price Analysis: 3 Hold Despite TVL Surge and V4 Upgrade Momentum


Luisa Crawford
Jul 22, 2025 02:29

AAVE trades at $323.23 (-0.78% daily) as $50B TVL milestone and V4 upgrade support bullish structure despite profit-taking pressure.

Quick Take

• AAVE currently trading at $323.23 (-0.78% in 24h)
• Aave’s RSI at 63.43 shows neutral momentum with bullish MACD crossover
• TVL reaches historic $50 billion while V4 upgrade introduces unified liquidity layer

What’s Driving Aave Price Today?

The AAVE price action reflects a tug-of-war between fundamental strength and short-term profit-taking. Over the past 24 hours, Aave has experienced modest selling pressure following a strong weekly performance that saw gains of approximately 9%.

The most significant catalyst supporting long-term bullish sentiment is Aave’s Total Value Locked reaching an unprecedented $50 billion across 34 blockchain networks. This milestone reinforces Aave’s dominant position in the decentralized finance lending sector and demonstrates growing institutional and retail adoption of the protocol.

However, recent market dynamics have created headwinds for the AAVE price. Large-scale liquidations, particularly Trend Research’s $150 million ETH sale to repay Aave loans, have introduced temporary selling pressure. While this activity highlights Aave’s utility as a lending platform, it also represents significant token outflows that can impact short-term price action.

The launch of Aave V4 on June 30 continues to provide fundamental support. The upgrade’s unified liquidity layer and GHO stablecoin integration promise reduced gas costs and expanded collateral options, including Bitcoin collateralization capabilities.

AAVE Technical Analysis: Bullish Signals Emerge

Based on Binance spot market data, Aave technical analysis reveals a predominantly bullish structure despite recent consolidation. The AAVE RSI currently sits at 63.43, positioning the token in neutral territory with room for upward movement before reaching overbought conditions.

The MACD indicator shows encouraging signs with a reading of 14.4996 above the signal line at 14.0537, creating a positive histogram of 0.4458. This configuration suggests building bullish momentum for Aave in the near term.

Aave’s position relative to its moving averages further supports the bullish thesis. The current price of $323.23 trades above all major moving averages, including the 7-day SMA at $322.60, 20-day SMA at $304.96, and significantly above the 200-day SMA at $237.38. This alignment indicates a strong uptrend across multiple timeframes.

The Bollinger Bands analysis shows AAVE trading at 74.43% of the band width, positioned between the middle band at $304.96 and upper band at $342.35. This suggests the token has room to test higher resistance levels.

Aave Price Levels: Key Support and Resistance

Current Aave support levels provide clear risk management guidelines for traders. The immediate support zone sits at $258.56, representing a significant 20% buffer below current prices. Stronger support emerges at $213.00, which would represent a deeper correction but remains well above the 200-day moving average.

AAVE resistance levels present clear upside targets. The immediate resistance at $337.98 aligns closely with the Bollinger Band upper boundary at $342.35, creating a confluence zone that could trigger profit-taking. A breakout above this level would target the 52-week high at $383.53, representing potential upside of approximately 18% from current levels.

The pivot point at $324.20 sits just above current prices, suggesting AAVE is testing a breakout above this neutral zone. The daily ATR of $18.68 indicates typical daily volatility, helping traders set appropriate stop-loss and take-profit levels.

Should You Buy AAVE Now? Risk-Reward Analysis

For swing traders, the current AAVE price setup offers attractive risk-reward characteristics. Entry near current levels around $323 provides a favorable position with stop-loss placement below the $305 support zone. This configuration offers approximately 2:1 risk-reward ratios targeting the $337-342 resistance cluster.

Day traders should monitor the AAVE/USDT pair for breakouts above the $325 level, which could trigger momentum toward the immediate resistance. The 24-hour trading range of $314.64 to $334.73 provides clear boundaries for range-trading strategies.

Long-term investors may find current levels attractive given the fundamental developments. The $50 billion TVL milestone and V4 upgrade represent significant protocol developments that support higher valuations over time. However, potential short-term volatility from ongoing profit-taking and market rotation suggests dollar-cost averaging may be preferable to lump-sum entries.

Risk management remains crucial given the overall market uncertainty. Setting stop-losses below the $305 level protects against broader market corrections while maintaining exposure to AAVE’s fundamental growth drivers.

Conclusion

The AAVE price currently reflects a healthy consolidation following strong weekly gains, with technical indicators suggesting potential for renewed upside momentum. The $50 billion TVL milestone and successful V4 upgrade provide fundamental support, while the neutral RSI and bullish MACD configuration indicate favorable technical conditions. Traders should watch for a break above $325 to confirm renewed bullish momentum, with initial targets at the $337-342 resistance zone.

Image source: Shutterstock




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