Forget the old rulebook for Bitcoin cycles. Sure, the April 2024 halving cut the new supply of coins, an event that has historically kicked off major bull runs about 500 days later. However, this time is different.
With Bitcoin now hovering at around $111,000 after a summer peak above $124,000, the real test begins. The big money has finally arrived in the form of Spot ETFs. Hence, the question is what happens when Wall Street’s immense influence collides with Bitcoin’s built-in scarcity.
Wall Street’s new money hose
The Spot Bitcoin ETFs approved in January 2024 have completely changed the market’s DNA. These investment vehicles became a firehose for institutional cash, sucking in over $51 billion in 2025 alone. BlackRock’s IBIT emerged as the clear giant, with the same now holding around 781,160 BTC – More than what’s sitting in Coinbase’s entire custody. This effectively vacuumed up a massive chunk of coins that would otherwise be for sale.
Even when macro fears sparked a $523 million outflow on a single day in mid-August, the overall trend has pointed one way – Big players are buying.
Source: Coinglass
Analysts at Standard Chartered believe this constant buying pressure has broken Bitcoin’s old habit of slumping after a halving, leading them to predict a $200,000 price tag by year’s end, a view shared by firms like Bitwise and VanEck. In fact, in the second quarter of 2025 alone, these funds and other corporate buyers bought up roughly 245,000 BTC. And, that pace has shown no signs of slowing down at all.
Blockchain data tells a bullish story
A look under the hood at the blockchain itself revealed that this market isn’t even close to topping out.
Source: Bitcoin Magazine Pro
The MVRV Z-Score, a tool that gauges if Bitcoin is over or undervalued, was sitting in a comfortable middle ground at press time. After the price dropped from over $100,000 to $75,000 earlier in the year, the Z-Score hit a low of 1.43.
Historically, that’s a signal of a temporary dip within a larger rally, not the final peak. At the same time, long-term investors are still accumulating, soaking up whatever coins short-term traders are selling off. That’s a sign of real conviction, suggesting the market may be just catching its breath before the next leg up.
Governments are finally playing ball!
For years, the threat of a regulatory crackdown has held big money back. That fear is now fading. In the U.S, a friendlier attitude in Washington is pushing forward bills like the FIT21 Act, which would finally draw clear lines for who regulates crypto.
That kind of rulebook is exactly what conservative pension funds need before they can jump in. Over in Europe, the new MiCA regulations are already live, creating a single, licensed crypto market across 27 countries.
It’s a massive step towards making digital assets a legitimate, trusted part of the global financial system.
Not a straight shot to the top…
Of course, nothing is guaranteed. Bitcoin is now trading more in step with traditional markets. So, a spike in inflation or a surprise move from the Federal Reserve could send risk-averse investors running. The mid-August ETF sell-off was a direct result of those very jitters.
Expect wild swings. For instance, analysts at VanEck are already calling for a potential 30% drop, even in a bull year. Some chart-watchers see a possible dip towards $108,000 before the hike can properly resume.
And, while Bitcoin’s “digital gold” story is strong, it’s not the only game in town. Capital is also flowing to other projects like Ethereum too, which are grabbing institutional attention with their own ETFs.
Is $180,000 really on the cards?
When you mix the post-halving supply crunch with a brand new, seemingly endless firehose of ETF demand, you get a powerful recipe for a price explosion. It’s why analysts at major institutions like Standard Chartered and Bitwise are all pointing to the $180,000 to $200,000 range by the end of 2025.
JPMorgan has even suggested Bitcoin could start stealing gold’s thunder as institutional appetite grows. According to on-chain data, this rally has plenty of room to run. And, with regulators finally providing a clear framework, the world’s largest pools of capital are just starting to get comfortable.
Volatility will be part of the ride, but the market’s fundamental engine has been rebuilt. Based on the evidence, a target of $180,000 may be less like a wild guess and more like a plausible destination.