Bitcoin touches previous all-time high amid US government shutdown, macro uncertainties

Bitcoin (BTC) set a new record on Oct. 3, clearing its Aug. 14 peak of $123,731.21 and resetting the ceiling for this cycle. 

The move follows a steady October grind that accelerated as macro and flow tailwinds aligned.

The spot market tone heading into October has been constructive. Bitcoin reclaimed the $120,000 threshold on Oct. 2 as risk appetite improves amid a US government shutdown backdrop. 

The shutdown itself is proving to be additive for Bitcoin as it has interrupted key federal economic data, most notably the monthly jobs report, muddying visibility for policymakers and markets.

With official readings dark, investors are relying on weaker private-sector signals, which increases the odds of additional Fed easing on Oct. 29. This kind of backdrop typically supports risk assets and hard-asset hedges like BTC.

Additionally, demand for spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) has reaccelerated, with funds recording $1.3 billion in net flows between Oct. 1 and 2.

The ETF demand helped absorb supply and reinforced dip-buying behavior observed in recent weeks. 

Macro is pulling in the same direction. The Federal Reserve cut rates by 25 basis points on Sept. 17, and markets now ascribe high odds to another cut this month, easing financial conditions that typically favor risk assets and crypto. 

Options positioning may also be aiding momentum. A record quarterly expiry last week reset risk and opened room for upside as open interest rebuilds into the fourth quarter, with heavy call interest clustered between $115,000 and $125,000 strikes.