By Omkar Godbole (All times ET unless indicated otherwise)
Big weekend buzz: Bitcoin (BTC) shot up to record highs, and its dominance rate ticked up too, signaling fresh bias toward the top cryptocurrency.
But the headline wasn’t just about crypto — Japan’s new prime minister openly backing “Abenomics” was an even bigger deal. That means the world’s three largest economies — the U.S., China, and Japan — are now all leaning toward easing policies. That’s a strong tailwind for asset prices across the board.
If that’s not enough to stir excitement, on-chain data shows whales are slowing their coin spending. As Glassnode points out, “Mid-sized #BTC holders are accumulating strongly, whale distribution has moderated, and smaller entities remain neutral. This points to fresh structural demand emerging despite continued large holder selling.”
Put all that together, and it’s a pretty strong rebuttal to fears that bitcoin is on the brink of a year-long bear market, consistent with the so-called four year halving cycles.
Keep in mind, previous bear markets were sparked by counterparty risks. Is there one looming now? I’ll leave that for you to ponder.
Switching gears to altcoins, Timothy Misir, head of research at BRN, noted that “ether treasuries now own more circulating supply of the token versus bitcoin treasuries. The market is maturing and capital rotation is deliberate.”
On the investment front, digital asset products recorded a record $5.95 billion of inflows last week, according to CoinShares data — that’s the biggest weekly inflow ever.
Looking at individual tokens, Tron’s TRX aimed to break above its 50-day SMA, building on Wednesday’s rally, boosted by activity on the newly launched SunPerp platform. Meanwhile, Lido’s LDO token, which surged 7% late last week, lost steam over the weekend and slid 3% in the last 24 hours. Notably, on Friday, VanEck registered a statutory trust for an ETF tied to Lido Staked Ethereum.
Meanwhile, Tokenomics issued a warning about some major single unlocks ahead — over $5 million each for tokens like APT, ATH, LINEA, BABAY, BB, HOME, IO, and MOVE — which traders may want to watch closely.
In the traditional markets, the Japanese yen slipped against the U.S. dollar even as Japan’s Nikkei index hit record highs. Meanwhile, S&P 500 futures inched up 0.12% despite the ongoing U.S. government shutdown.
Stay alert!
What to Watch
For a more comprehensive list of events this week, see CoinDesk’s “Crypto Week Ahead”.
- Crypto
- Oct. 6: Cronos (CRO) is discontinuing CronoScan in favor of Cronos Explorer.
- Oct. 6, 4 a.m.: The Floki (FLOKI) team is hosting its monthly AMA on Telegram.
- Macro
- Nothing scheduled.
- Earnings (Estimates based on FactSet data)
- Nothing scheduled.
Token Events
For a more comprehensive list of events this week, see CoinDesk’s “Crypto Week Ahead”.
- Governance votes & calls
- Compound DAO is currently holding a non-binding “temperature check” vote on a proposal to deprecate Compound V2. Voting ends Oct. 6.
- Unlocks
- No major unlocks.
- Token Launches
- Oct. 6: Everlyn AI (LYN) to be listed on Binance Alpha, BingX, MEXC, and others.
Conferences
For a more comprehensive list of events this week, see CoinDesk’s “Crypto Week Ahead”.
- Oct. 6: Capital Pioneer’s Digital Assets Summit 2025 (London)
- Day 1 of 2: London Fintech Summit
Token Talk
By Oliver Knight
- Altcoins traded in a muted fashion on Monday following a volatile weekend; several tokens including PUMP, ENA, NEAR and XMR lost more than 5% over the past 24 hours while ZEC, BNB and MNT posted modest gains.
- The average relative strength index (RSI) is now at 52.17 out of 100 as it exits overbought territory and edges into the neutral zone, according to CoinMarketCap.
- As the altcoin market begins to consolidate, bitcoin dominance rose by 0.16% on Monday as traders swap speculative tokens for the industry’s largest cryptocurrency, which is on the cusp of a breakout to record highs.
- One of the market outliers from the past week has been ASTER, the token tied to its namesake’s perpetual exchange. ASTER slumped over the weekend amid wash trading allegations but has since recovered after the it was listed for trading on Binance.
- Another token in the spotlight of late has been plasma (XPL). The stablecoin-focused blockchain fended off negative sentiment around founding team token sales, rising from $0.85 to $0.94 on Sunday before settling at around $0.88 on Monday.
Derivatives Positioning
- Bitcoin’s weekend rise to record highs was accompanied by an upswing in open interest in perpetuals listed on major exchanges, with funding rates rising to the highest level since mid-August. Ether OI, however, held flat, maintaining the downtrend since late August.
- On a 24-hour basis, OI in major tokens, excluding BNB and XRP, has held flat to negative. BNB’s OI has increased by over 10%, pointing to continued capital inflows into the market.
- XRP’s OI nearly hit the 3 billion XRP mark for the first time since July.
- One worrying sign: Except BNB, MNT, CRO, and TRX, other top 30 tokens have seen a negative cumulative volume delta in the past 24 hours. That’s a sign of net selling pressure in the market.
- On the CME, BTC October futures (standard contract) traded on a positive note, taking cues from the bullish spot price action over the weekend. The contract, however, had yet to reach its peak of around $125,955, hit on August 15.
- On Deribit, pricing for BTC options suggested a 3% price swing during the week ahead. Despite BTC hitting new highs, only short-term options showed a bias for calls, while those from Oct. 17 retained a moderate put bias. ETH risk reversals displayed a similar mood.
Market Movements
- BTC is up 1.27% from 4 p.m. ET Friday at $124,092.00 (24hrs: +0.85%)
- ETH is up 0.66% at $4,567.54 (24hrs: +0.5%)
- CoinDesk 20 is up 0.17% at 4,346.29 (24hrs: +0.24%)
- Ether CESR Composite Staking Rate is down 6 bps at 2.82%
- BTC funding rate is at -0.0043% (-4.7495% annualized) on KuCoin
- DXY is up 0.72% at 98.43
- Gold futures are up 1.38% at $3,962.90
- Silver futures are up 0.97% at $48.43
- Nikkei 225 closed up 4.75% at 47,944.76
- Hang Seng closed down 0.67% at 26,957.77
- FTSE is down 0.11% at 9,480.56
- Euro Stoxx 50 is down 0.36% at 5,631.27
- DJIA closed on Friday up 0.51% at 46,758.28
- S&P 500 closed up 0.01% at 6,715.79
- Nasdaq Composite closed down 0.28% at 22,780.51
- S&P/TSX Composite closed up 1.03% at 30,471.68
- S&P 40 Latin America closed up 0.3% at 2,902.44
- U.S. 10-Year Treasury rate is up 2.9 bps at 4.148%
- E-mini S&P 500 futures are up 0.36% at 6,788.50
- E-mini Nasdaq-100 futures are up 0.57% at 25,135.00
- E-mini Dow Jones Industrial Average Index are up 0.19% at 47,119.00
Bitcoin Stats
- BTC Dominance: 59.09% (-0.36%)
- Ether to bitcoin ratio: 0.03684 (0.77%)
- Hashrate (seven-day moving average): 1,032
- Hashprice (spot): $51.87
- Total Fees: 2.69 BTC / $332,446
- CME Futures Open Interest: 144,550 BTC
- BTC priced in gold: 31.6 oz
- BTC vs gold market cap: 8.93%
Technical Analysis
- The chart shows Volmex’s bitcoin implied volatility index, BVIV, which represents expectations for price turbulence over four weeks.
- The index remains in a downtrend trend, hovering near annualized 40%, significantly lower than 73% observed when BTC first broke above $100K late last year.
- The lower volatility signals market maturation and growing acclimatization to six-figure prices.
Crypto Equities
- Coinbase Global (COIN): closed on Monday at $380.02 (+2.14%), +2.36% at $388.98 in pre-market
- Circle Internet (CRCL): closed at $145.78 (-2.63%), +4.9% at $152.93
- Galaxy Digital (GLXY): closed at $36.16 (-0.99%), +4.04% at $37.62
- Bullish (BLSH): closed at $64.81 (-4.56%), +2.45% at $66.40
- MARA Holdings (MARA): closed at $18.82 (+0.16%), +3.51% at $19.48
- Riot Platforms (RIOT): closed at $19.44 (+0.99%), +3.96% at $20.21
- Core Scientific (CORZ): closed at $17.82 (-1.55%), unchanged in pre-market
- CleanSpark (CLSK): closed at $15.94 (+5.28%), +3.45% at $16.49
- CoinShares Valkyrie Bitcoin Miners ETF (WGMI): closed at $48.19 (+3.66%), +5.17% at $50.68
- Exodus Movement (EXOD): closed at $30.06 (-2.59%), +1.36% at $30.47
Crypto Treasury Companies
- Strategy (MSTR): closed at $351.63 (-0.2%), +2.51% at $360.47
- Semler Scientific (SMLR): closed at $30.56 (-2.55%), +1.11% at $30.90
- SharpLink Gaming (SBET): closed at $18.18 (+0.5%), +2.48% at $18.63
- Upexi (UPXI): closed at $7.44 (+2.06%), +0.81% at $7.50
- Lite Strategy (LITS): closed at $2.56 (-4.48%)
ETF Flows
Spot BTC ETFs
- Daily net flow: $985.1 million
- Cumulative net flows: $60.01 billion
- Total BTC holdings ~ 1.33 million
Spot ETH ETFs
- Daily net flow: $233.5 million
- Cumulative net flows: $14.44 billion
- Total ETH holdings ~ 6.74 million
Source: Farside Investors
While You Were Sleeping
- Bitcoin Hits Record High Against Yen as Japan’s New PM Sanae Plans to Revive ‘Abenomics’ (CoinDesk): Prime Minister Takaichi Sanae’s pledge to revive aggressive fiscal and monetary easing has weakened the yen and lifted bitcoin and equities to record highs.
- France’s Prime Minister Resigns Less Than a Month After Appointment (Financial Times): Sébastien Lecornu’s exit followed threats from coalition allies and left-wing parties to block his government over French President Emmanuel Macron’s pension reforms, reigniting France’s political turmoil and rattling investors.
- Tariffs Threatened to Be a Third Inflation Shock for Europe, But Have Had Little Impact (The Wall Street Journal): Europe’s muted inflation response to U.S. tariffs stems from governments’ decision not to retaliate, trade deals cushioning export losses, and a stronger euro offsetting import costs, ECB officials said.
- Swiss Exchange Group to Bring Digital Assets Unit SDX In-House (Bloomberg): The swiss exchange operator is integrating SDX’s blockchain platform into its core exchange and post-trade divisions to unify custody, settlement and trading of regulated digital securities across its infrastructure.