Key Takeaways
Can BTC hit $1M in the next decade?
Key pricing models are projecting that the target may be possible.
What are the potential risks to the projection?
Quantum computing and the outcome of the 2028 elections could be key risk factors.
Bitcoin [BTC] doubled from $60k to over $120k in the past few months, before slipping to near $110k at press time. Simply put, the short-term outlook remains uncertain as it stands. However, institutions and renowned individuals have projected that the crypto asset could hit $1M per coin by 2030.
That would be a 10x run from $100k to $1M. Sounds ridiculous, right? Surprisingly, models like the Stock-to-Flow and Bitcoin Quantile are leaning towards a likely 7-figure value for BTC by 2030 or the next decade.
Charting BTC’s path to $1M
As far as stock-to-flow is concerned, it estimates BTC’s potential price based on its yearly production or mined BTC. At the time of writing, the model seemed to be projecting that BTC could hit the $500k-$1M price range by 2029.
Source: BitBo
In the past, the model has acted like an average for price swings and made fair predictions with a few deviations.
Another relatively harmonised model, Bitcoin Quantile, has marked out $870k as an extreme price target by 2030 and $190k-$400k as a moderate price forecast.
Source: Bitcoin Quantile from 21st Capital
The ambitious $1M price target could be reachable by the next decade (2035-2040), according to this model. It uses historical price data and regression to accommodate cycle changes over time.
In the modest target, $1M could be hit by 2031, with an extreme target of $2.3M by 2035, with $700k as a potential floor price.
In other words, a $500k target could be feasible in the H2 of this decade, before potentially doubling to $1M by as early as 2031.
Analysts’ targets and risks
For analysts leaning on the BTC/gold ratio, if BTC hits 10% of gold’s market cap (Currently at $29 trillion), that would be $147k per BTC.
For a 50% or BTC rivalling gold at 100% market size, it would mean $736k-$1.47M per BTC.
In fact, this is the thesis behind Ark Invest’s Cathie Wood projection and several others. For Gemini’s founders, BTC is a ‘Gold 2.0.’
A similar outlook has been shared by Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong. According to him, BTC could become a long-term global reserve asset, driving its value to $ the $1M target.
However, there are some long-term threats worth noting. Despite the extreme targets floated by mega-bulls. One is the quantum computer risk, especially if the Bitcoin network doesn’t become quantum-resistant.
About 30% of the current BTC supply could be stolen and tank the entire market, as per Capriole Investment’s founder Charles Edwards. Especially if the tech advances in the next few years.
Source: X
Additionally, if the next U.S administration becomes anti-crypto again, the sector could be thrown into a limbo again.
Overall, BTC’s scarcity and ‘gold-like’ safe-haven status could drive its adoption in the next decade. However, tech development, especially quantum computing, and U.S politics, could impact the space and the price projection.