Alvin Lang
Oct 31, 2025 23:08
The recent tariff truce between the US and China could stabilize the crypto market by easing global growth concerns and reducing volatility across risk assets.
The recent tariff truce between the United States and China is anticipated to bring potential relief to the crypto markets, according to a report by CryptoNews. On October 30, 2025, the agreement to ease tariffs and resume soybean purchases was announced following a summit between US President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping. The truce includes a reduction in tariffs to 10% and a pause on new rare-earth controls for one year.
Macro Pathways Into Crypto
The tariff relief is expected to soften the strength of the US dollar and stabilize global growth expectations, which often correlate with firmer closes across risk assets, including cryptocurrencies. The crypto market has been sensitive to policy threats, often reacting to changes in rhetoric and stabilizing when tensions cool. The flexibility in rare-earth policies also reduces uncertainty for equipment and data-center planning, providing a stable environment for validators and service providers.
Moreover, the truce decreases the likelihood of abrupt export or shipping restrictions that could disrupt cross-border settlements. A clearer logistics environment allows treasury teams to reduce precautionary buffers, ultimately lowering the risk of forced de-risking during peak periods.
Micro Signals To Track
Stablecoin issuance, often affected by policy uncertainties, could see a rise if the truce leads to increased settlement liquidity. This would support spot flows and signal a shift from leverage-driven market movements to more stable cash-driven advances. The spot-to-futures basis and funding rates are key indicators to watch, as movements toward neutrality suggest that market exposure is being added with cash rather than leverage, reducing the likelihood of sudden market reversals.
One-Month Setup After Tariff Truce
If the resumption of soybean purchases and the pause on rare-earth controls proceed as planned, settlement frictions are expected to ease, leading to shorter redemption queues and tighter quote spreads. However, the calm policy environment does not guarantee immediate market inflows. Any renewed technology restrictions, currency disputes, or shipping disagreements could widen risk premia and thin market depth, potentially recreating the mid-October pattern of significant liquidations.
For now, the outlook remains cautiously optimistic. If market depth rebuilds, stablecoin supply stabilizes, and the basis settles, the crypto market may see sustained positive movements, with Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH) leading the charge, and Solana (SOL) and Ripple (XRP) providing further confirmation.
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