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Key Takeaways
What are the odds of SOL hitting $500 in 2026?
Only about 1%, per Deribit Options data — showing the market hasn’t priced in a potential 3x move yet.
How much inflow could SOL ETFs attract?
Up to $3 billion over the next 12 months, according to Bloomberg ETF analyst James Seyffart.
Solana [SOL] shed nearly half of its peak value of about $300 and slipped below $150 during early Q4 2025 headwinds.
As of writing, the altcoin traded at $169, representing a 16% recovery from its recent lows of $146, but still 32% down from its October high of $253.
Amid the sluggish recovery, institutional bids grew for the newly approved Grayscale and Bitwise Spot SOL ETFs, both of which include staking.}
In fact, Soso Value data indicated that the products experienced a surge in inflows since their debut in late October, despite the decline recorded in the broader market.
Source: Soso Value
Overall, the products have attracted a total of $336 million in net inflows since their launch. So, how far can the inflows extend and what is their potential impact on SOL’s value in 2026?
SOL ETF flows vs price
According to Bloomberg ETF analyst James Seyffart, the products could attract $3 billion in inflows over the next 12-18 months, based on SOL’s relative market cap to Bitcoin [BTC].
For comparison, U.S. Spot BTC ETFs did over $30 billion in Netflows after a year of their debut.
Another ETF flows-based model by market maker, GSR, suggested that SOL could rally 1.4X in a bear case, or blast 3.4x to 8.9x in base or bullish “sky” scenarios.
Source: GSR
At the time of the project, SOL was valued at around $149. GSR expected the asset to reach between $208 and over $1,300 if ETFs are approved.
Seyffart’s $3 billion projection would translate to GSR’s target range from “baseline” to “blue sky.” This implies a price range of $500 to $700 or $1,300 to $1,600 by next year.
If these projections are validated, the current $169 value would represent a significant discount.
The Spot Retail Activity, which tracks retail presence, was at “neutral” levels. This suggests that further upside potential is feasible.
Source: CryptoQuant
However, the mid-term positioning was mixed and skewed for more downside. According to Options data, most volume was concentrated at $120-$130, despite bullish expectations for an upswing to $220 or $300.
Source: Laevitas
Notably, the odds of tagging $400 in 2026 were at 11% and 1% for $500. It underscored that, as of press time, the market was not pricing a 3x move in the next 12 months, despite a positive outlook for ETF flows.