Darius Baruo
Nov 18, 2025 17:50
BTC price trading at $93,266.00 after falling below $90,000 milestone for first time in seven months as investors turn cautious on Federal Reserve policy outlook.
Quick Take
• BTC trading at $93,266.00 (up 0.4% in 24h)
• Bitcoin fell below $90,000 for first time since April amid broader risk-off sentiment
• Testing critical support near lower Bollinger Band at $90,985
• Correlation with traditional risk assets remains elevated as Fed uncertainty weighs
Market Events Driving Bitcoin Price Movement
Bitcoin’s dramatic fall below the $90,000 psychological level marks the most significant development for BTC price action this week, representing a nearly 30% decline from October’s peak above $126,000. This breakdown occurred as investors grew increasingly cautious about future U.S. interest rate cuts, with weakening sentiment spreading across global markets.
The cryptocurrency’s decline accelerated on November 14th when BTC price slid to six-month lows below $96,000, driven by fading expectations for a December rate cut from the Federal Reserve. This macro-driven selloff highlights Bitcoin’s continued sensitivity to monetary policy signals, as the digital asset has increasingly moved in tandem with other risk assets during periods of uncertainty.
Adding a positive note to an otherwise bearish week, the Singapore Exchange announced the launch of perpetual futures trading for bitcoin and ether, exclusively available to accredited and institutional investors. While this institutional infrastructure development typically supports long-term adoption, it has been overshadowed by the broader market’s risk-off positioning.
The absence of significant positive catalysts has left Bitcoin technical analysis as the primary driver of short-term price action, with traders focusing on key support and resistance levels as the market searches for direction.
BTC Technical Analysis: Oversold Conditions Emerge
Price Action Context
Bitcoin technical analysis reveals the cryptocurrency trading well below all major moving averages, with BTC price sitting approximately $9,000 below the 20-day SMA at $102,130. The current positioning below the 50-day ($109,466) and 200-day ($110,405) moving averages confirms the deteriorating technical picture that began in late October.
Trading volume on Binance spot market reached $4.69 billion in the past 24 hours, indicating elevated institutional and retail interest during this volatile period. The sustained high volume suggests genuine selling pressure rather than mere liquidity issues.
Key Technical Indicators
The daily RSI reading of 31.51 indicates Bitcoin is approaching oversold territory, though it hasn’t yet reached the extreme levels (below 30) that typically signal short-term bounces. This suggests further downside remains possible before technical buyers emerge.
MACD momentum continues to deteriorate with the histogram at -930.8, confirming bearish momentum remains intact. The Stochastic indicators (%K at 21.99, %D at 11.73) show oversold conditions developing, though these can persist during strong downtrends.
Critical Price Levels for Bitcoin Traders
Immediate Levels (24-48 hours)
• Resistance: $96,000 (previous support turned resistance + EMA 12)
• Support: $89,253 (24-hour low and strong support level)
Breakout/Breakdown Scenarios
A decisive break below $89,253 would likely trigger stops and algorithmic selling, potentially targeting the next major support zone around $85,000-$87,000. Conversely, a recovery above $96,000 could signal short-term stabilization and attract technical buyers targeting the $100,000 psychological level.
BTC Correlation Analysis
Bitcoin’s correlation with traditional risk assets has strengthened during this selloff, with the cryptocurrency following broader equity market weakness as investors reassess Fed policy expectations. The correlation with the S&P 500 appears elevated based on similar risk-off price action across asset classes.
Unlike previous crypto-specific selloffs, this decline appears driven primarily by macro factors rather than sector-specific issues, explaining the synchronized weakness across digital assets. This correlation suggests Bitcoin price movements may continue tracking traditional market sentiment until macro uncertainty resolves.
Trading Outlook: Bitcoin Near-Term Prospects
Bullish Case
A successful test and hold of the $89,253 support level combined with oversold RSI conditions could trigger a technical bounce toward $96,000-$98,000. Positive developments regarding Fed policy or unexpected institutional adoption news could accelerate any recovery.
Bearish Case
Failure to hold $89,253 support opens the door for extended weakness toward $85,000, with the potential for cascading liquidations if selling pressure intensifies. Continued macro headwinds and risk-off sentiment pose the primary threats to near-term price stability.
Risk Management
Conservative traders should consider tight stop-losses below $88,000 given the elevated volatility (ATR at $4,173). Position sizing should account for potential gap moves as liquidity conditions remain challenging during high-volatility periods.
Image source: Shutterstock