 
 
A closely followed market analyst says XRP is tracing a pattern strikingly similar to the one that preceded its euphoric 2017 rally, raising the prospect of a massive upside move if the structure holds.
In a new analysis, Chart Nerd noted that during the 2017 cycle, XRP spent roughly three months cooling off before retesting its three-month 20-EMA, just before a 25x surge to its blow-off top.
According to the analyst, 2025 is unfolding in almost the same way. XRP posted a major breakout last year and has now completed a three-month pullback toward the same long-term EMA level.
If the setup repeats even halfway, Chart Nerd argues, “we’re missing at least a 10x upside move,” which would still be far smaller than the 2017 rally.
The analyst added that this perspective does not ignore the 2021 lower high but aligns with long-standing resistance dating back to the monthly closes of 2017 and the years of price suppression tied to the SEC lawsuit.
 
That said, the structure will remain intact unless XRP closes below its three-month 20-EMA, currently around $1.20.
Additional analysts are reading recent volatility through a similar lens. Another trader remarked that XRP briefly broke a key convergence zone below but quickly recovered, calling the dip a “fake breakout” designed to shake out sellers who anticipated a deeper decline.
With that trap now behind the market, the market watcher expects the convergence to resolve soon and believes XRP could rally once it pushes decisively above the zone.
Despite the optimism, XRP’s near-term performance has softened. The coin slipped 3.22% in the past 24 hours to $2.06, lagging the general market.
Experts point to a recent CoinShares ETF withdrawal, repeated failures to break through the $2.25–$2.50 resistance band, and fresh whale inflows of 110 million XRP onto exchanges.
Even so, XRP is still up 11.37% over the week, and traders highlight the $2.10 78.6% Fibonacci level as the line that must hold to avoid a deeper pullback.