 
 
Grayscale has outlined a bullish outlook for Bitcoin, projecting that the asset will reach a new all-time high in the first half of 2026 as the crypto market enters what it describes as the institutional era.
In its latest report, the asset manager argues that structural shifts, rather than speculative cycles, will define the next phase of market growth.
According to Grayscale, two forces support this prediction. The first is sustained macro demand for alternative stores of value.
With public sector debt rising and confidence in long-term fiat stability increasingly questioned, scarce digital assets such as Bitcoin and Ethereum are gaining appeal as portfolio hedges.
Grayscale notes that Bitcoin’s supply is predictable, with the 20 millionth coin expected to be mined in March 2026.
 
The second driver is regulatory clarity, which Grayscale believes will unlock broader institutional participation.
The firm expects bipartisan U.S. crypto market structure legislation to become law in 2026, building on milestones such as the GENIUS Act, the approval of spot Bitcoin and Ether exchange-traded products, and a broader regulatory shift toward engagement rather than enforcement.
This framework is expected to deepen the integration of public blockchains into traditional financial infrastructure and support regulated trading, custody, and even on-chain issuance.
Grayscale also challenges the long-held four-year cycle theory, which ties crypto market peaks to Bitcoin halvings. The current bull market has already extended beyond historical norms, and the firm argues that steadier institutional inflows are replacing the sharp retail-driven surges of past cycles.
Since U.S. spot Bitcoin ETPs launched in January 2024, global crypto ETPs have attracted $87 billion in net inflows, yet Grayscale estimates that less than 0.5% of U.S. advised wealth is currently allocated to crypto, suggesting significant room for growth.
Unlike previous cycles of extreme volatility, Grayscale expects a measured and steadier market in 2026.