Bitcoin is entering the final stretch of the year in a paradoxical position. Institutional adoption has never been stronger, yet price action remains hesitant, weighed down by thin liquidity, legacy holder distribution, and uneven global flows.
As markets look ahead to 2026, the question is less about whether Bitcoin’s monetary case still holds and more about when price catches up to it.
Thin Liquidity Driving Short-Term Volatility
Bitcoin is closing the year holding to familiar holiday dynamics rather than new fundamental catalysts.
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“With holiday conditions continuing to suppress liquidity, pockets of elevated spot volatility are arising, but are also unsurprising,” QCP analysts said.
The elevated spot volatility has been fueled by discretionary buying rather than forced positioning resets, the analysts said. QCP added that demand appears to be coming from spot and perpetual markets operating in thin conditions.
Part of the buying pressure appears to have come from Strategy, which revealed in a Monday filing that it purchased 1,229 Bitcoin last week for $108.8 million at an average price of $88,568 per coin.
Options Markets Signal Fragile Upside
Following the major options expiry on Friday, Bitcoin perpetual funding on Deribit jumped from near-flat levels to above 30%, reflecting a potentially optimistic shift in dealer exposure.
QCP noted that traders who were previously long gamma ahead of expiry, helping keep prices range-bound, are now effectively short gamma to the upside. As prices rise, those participants are forced to buy spot Bitcoin or near-dated call options to hedge, reinforcing upside momentum.
Monday’s QCP Capital note points to aggressive buying in perpetuals and demand for Bitcoin call options. QCP said a sustained move above $94,000 could open the door to a more pronounced gamma-driven squeeze.
On the downside, near-term risk hedging has eased. Put skew has declined after traders chose not to roll a large December $85,000 put position.
In addition, roughly 50% of open interest was wiped out following Friday’s record expiry, leaving a significant amount of capital sidelined. According to the QCP Capital note, as positioning rebuilds, volatility is likely to return, but direction remains uncertain.
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Asia Accumulates as the US Sells
That uncertainty is playing out unevenly across regions. Laser Digital described the past week as exhibiting the usual holiday lull.
However, what stood out was a clear divergence in time-zone performance. Bitcoin and Ethereum both fell more than 3% during US trading hours, only to recover during Asian sessions.
The Laser Digital investor note attributed the pattern largely to year-end tax harvesting in the US, noting that crypto has underperformed most global assets this year. The result has been steady American selling pressure offset by overseas accumulation.
Despite the lull in market activity, Messari analysts have highlighted how crypto is being integrated at the highest institutional levels. Stablecoin supply is at an all-time high, and regulators are openly discussing on-chain market infrastructure.
“Yet it has almost never felt worse,” Messari’s end-of-year analyst note said, pointing to a growing disconnect between sentiment and reality.
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Why Bitcoin Lagged in 2025
Bitcoin’s underperformance relative to gold and equities in late 2025 has raised doubts about its “digital gold” narrative. Gold is up over 60% year-to-date, equities are at record highs, and Bitcoin remains slightly negative.
Messari argues the weakness is not structural, but supply-driven.
Older, large-balance holders have been net sellers throughout 2025, taking advantage of deeper institutional liquidity. Earlier this year, Galaxy Digital facilitated the sale of 80,000 BTC from a single Satoshi-era investor. On-chain data shows addresses holding between 1,000 and 100,000 BTC have distributed hundreds of thousands of coins year-to-date.
At the same time, two major demand engines slowed. Digital Asset Treasury inflows weakened in October, and spot Bitcoin ETFs, previously consistent buyers, have turned into net sellers.
The market has been forced to absorb rising supply just as steady inflows paused.
Messari does not see this as a permanent impairment. “When in doubt, zoom out,” the analysts said, emphasizing that Bitcoin has endured longer and deeper relative drawdowns in past cycles before reasserting itself.
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The 2026 Bitcoin Price Framework
Looking ahead, Messari argues that Bitcoin should no longer be analyzed through a simple four-year cycle lens. As a macro asset, its performance will increasingly hinge on broader forces, monetary policy, institutional allocation, and sovereign balance sheet decisions.
Still, Messari analysts see clear price frameworks emerging in 2026:
- $86,000–$90,000 remains a critical structural support zone, reinforced by spot buying and reduced downside hedging demand.
- $94,000 is the key upside trigger. A sustained break above this level could activate gamma-driven buying and reprice 2026 call options higher.
- $100,000–$110,000 represents the next major psychological and structural resistance zone, where profit-taking from legacy holders may re-emerge.
Beyond that, a renewed institutional inflow cycle, via ETFs, corporate treasuries, or sovereign accumulation, would be required to sustain a move toward new all-time highs in 2026.
Long-Term Conviction Remains
Despite short-term frustration, Messari analysts remain firm on Bitcoin’s trajectory.
“Bitcoin has firmly established itself apart from all other cryptoassets and is undoubtedly the leading form of cryptomoney,” analysts wrote.
Bitcoin continues to outperform nearly every major token over multi-year horizons, driven by sustained institutional demand. Spot ETFs, led by BlackRock’s IBIT, have reshaped market structure, while nearly 200 companies now hold Bitcoin on their balance sheets.
Looking into 2026, Messari’s confidence rests on first principles. In a world of rising government debt, financial repression, and declining real yields, Bitcoin’s predictable monetary policy, self-custody, and global portability remain unmatched.