 
 
XRP is drawing attention after an analyst outlined a fresh valuation outlook that puts the crypto above $15, citing historical symmetry and tightening supply dynamics as key drivers.
According to the analysis, XRP’s 2017 breakout followed through fully on its measured move, delivering an explosive rally once structural resistance was cleared.
The current setup suggests XRP may be on track to repeat that pattern, implying a near eightfold move or an increase of more than 690% from comparable levels.
Moreso, XRP’s available supply is tightening rather than collapsing in a single shock, as exchange balances continue to decline.
At the same time, ETFs are absorbing hundreds of millions of dollars’ worth of XRP, reducing freely tradable supply. Analysts caution against framing this as a precise early-2026 supply shock, emphasizing that the process resembles a slow squeeze.
 
That said, liquidity is drying up quietly, creating conditions in which prices can reprice rapidly once demand accelerates. Proponents insist that the setup is real, even if timing is a primary uncertainty.
Recent estimates suggest that only about 1.5 billion XRP are left on exchanges, while roughly 750 million have been absorbed in recent weeks.
Other analysts support the view that supply is tightening as ETF demand grows, arguing that price has yet to reflect these constraints fully and may be forced to catch up as the imbalance widens.
However, the XRP market sentiment is mixed. XRP has benefited from Bitcoin’s strength, recently testing the $1.92 area as BTC pushed above $90,000.
However, critics continue to question the token’s real-world adoption despite positive growth markers. For instance, rising ETF assets under management, now estimated at nearly $881 million, and Ripple’s reported 15% quarter-over-quarter growth in cross-border payments.
From a technical perspective, traders are cautious of downside risks below the $1.82 level. Market watchers are focused on the XRP-to-Bitcoin pair, where a breakout above 0.000028 BTC from the current 0.000025 range could signal broader altcoin rotation.
Whether XRP ultimately meets the $15 measured outlook may depend on how quickly supply tightening intersects with sustained demand.