- Recent changes in the ecosystem show that the original Ethereum price targets from Wall Street are now too low.
- The Fusaka upgrade has improved network scaling massively, making Ethereum the main settlement layer for global finance.
- So far, a smaller circulating supply and higher institutional revenue projections have raised the base-case valuation for 2030.
The crypto market tends to move at a pace that often leaves even the biggest predictions behind.
In June 2024, VanEck released a report that many considered aggressive. It set a base-case Ethereum price target of $22,000 by 2030.
At the time, with the asset trading near $3,500, critics called the move hyper-bullish.
However, as of writing, new data shows that the original math has changed.
Analysts now argue that the $22,000 target is obsolete and the projected price for 2030 has surged to $55,000.
Why the Ethereum Price Math is Changing Fast
To understand this jump, we must look at how firms like VanEck value the network. They do not view it as just a digital coin.
Instead, they treat it as a productive asset that functions like a global tech conglomerate or a settlement network.
According to analysts, the original formula relied on projected cash flows and market multiples.
However, when the prediction was made, the inputs for these models were conservative. They did not account for the explosive growth that happened last year.
According to analyst Joseph Young in a recent post, four major “pillars” are driving this upgrade to a $55,000 target.
VanEck ETH forecast going around now is outdated.
In 2024, VanEck estimated a 2030 ETH base case of ~$22K.
a lot has changed since then.
if we rerun VanEck’s model using today’s data, the base case moves significantly higher:
$22K -> $55K
here’s why 👇
VanEck’s valued ETH…
— Joseph Young (@iamjosephyoung) January 10, 2026
The first involves market share. Originally, experts thought Ethereum would capture 70% of the smart contract market. They expected heavy competition from other chains.
However, the competition has changed, and Ethereum Layer 2 networks like Base, Arbitrum and Optimism have effectively won the scaling race.
These networks now process nearly 90% of all rollup transactions.
Notably, because they use ETH for security, the effective market share is now closer to 85%.
Revenue Growth and the Fusaka Upgrade
Revenue projections have seen a massive upward revision. In 2024, the base case estimated $78 billion in annual revenue by 2030. That number has now climbed to $130 billion.
This change comes from two specific areas, including stablecoins and institutional settlement.
In late 2025, the stablecoin transfer volume on the network hit a record $8 trillion per quarter. This is no longer just for trading and has become a tool for global commerce.
The activation of the Fusaka upgrade in December also changed the game.
This upgrade introduced features like PeerDAS and Blob-Parameter-Only forks and dropped fees on Layer 2 networks by 95%.
A Shrinking Supply and Higher Multiples
Valuation is always a game of supply and demand. The 2024 model assumed a supply of about 100.1 million tokens by 2030.
Real-world data from early 2026 now paints a different picture, as staking participation has exceeded all expectations.
Over 34.6 million ETH is currently staked, representing nearly 29% of the entire supply being locked up.
The “burn” mechanics have also stayed strong. Despite lower fees, the sheer volume of transactions after the Fusaka upgrade keeps supply tight. Experts now believe that the circulating supply in 2030 will be around 95 million tokens.
A smaller supply historically leads to a higher price per token in any valuation model.
Furthermore, the market is willing to pay more for every dollar of profit the network earns. Analysts have raised the “multiple” from 33x to 40x.
This shows the network’s status as the grandfather of the new tokenised economy.