Cathie Wood’s Ark Invest is projecting a sharp expansion in crypto markets over the rest of the decade, with bitcoin expected to reach a market capitalization of around $16 trillion and the broader crypto market growing to roughly $28 trillion by 2030.
A $16 trillion bitcoin market cap would imply a price of roughly $761,900 per , assuming the full fixed supply of 21 million coins — a roughly 765% increase from current prices near $88,000.
In its “Big Ideas 2026” report published Wednesday, Ark said bitcoin is maturing as the leader of a new institutional asset class, while large-scale adoption of public blockchains is expected to support sustained long-term growth across the crypto industry.
Ark positions bitcoin primarily as a digital store of value, often described as “digital gold,” benefiting from rising institutional participation, increased exchange-traded fund adoption, growing corporate treasury exposure, and declining volatility.
The firm said U.S. spot bitcoin ETFs and public companies now hold about 12% of the total bitcoin supply.
In 2025, bitcoin ETF balances grew 19.7%, from roughly 1.12 million BTC to about 1.29 million BTC, while public company bitcoin holdings rose 73%, from around 598,000 BTC to about 1.09 million BTC, according to Ark. As a result, the share of bitcoin outstanding held by ETFs and public companies increased from 8.7% to 12%.
“Based on Ark’s forecast, bitcoin is likely to dominate the market cap for cryptocurrencies, increasing at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of ~63% during the next five years, from nearly ~$2 trillion to ~$16 trillion by 2030,” the firm said.
Ark has maintained a bullish stance on bitcoin and crypto for years, previously publishing aggressive long-term price targets. In April last year, the firm outlined bear, base, and bull-case bitcoin price scenarios for 2030 of roughly $300,000, $710,000, and $1.5 million, respectively. Then in November, the firm trimmed its bitcoin bull-case forecast by $300,000, citing the rise of stablecoins, which it said have taken over part of the role it once expected bitcoin to play.
In the 2026 report, Ark said its bitcoin market outlook for 2030 has remained “fairly stable,” despite changes to two underlying assumptions. The firm increased its digital gold total addressable market by 37% after gold’s market capitalization rose 64.5% in 2025, while sharply reducing expectations for bitcoin’s role as an emerging-market safe haven due to the rapid adoption of stablecoins in developing economies.
Beyond bitcoin, Ark expects the remaining share of the crypto market’s value to be driven largely by smart contract platforms. The firm forecasts that smart contract networks could collectively reach trillions of dollars in market capitalization by 2030, supported by onchain financial activity, tokenized securities and decentralized applications.
“The market capitalization of smart contracts could increase at a 54% annual rate to ~$6 trillion by 2030, as they generate annualized revenue of ~$192 billion at an average take rate of 0.75%,” Ark said. “Two to three Layer 1 smart contract platforms should take the lion’s share of the market, but garner more market cap from their monetary premium (store-of-value and reserve asset characteristics) than discounted cash flows.”
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