Bitcoin remains in a corrective phase after the failure to sustain the breakout above the mid-$90,000s. The recent price action resembles a pullback within a broader range rather than a confirmed trend reversal, but the rejection at key moving averages and supply zones has shifted the short-term balance of risk toward further consolidation and possible downside tests before any renewed advance.
Bitcoin Price Analysis: The Daily Chart
On the daily timeframe, the asset has rolled over from the $95,000 resistance band, which aligns with the underside of the 100-day moving average and sits well below the declining 200-day moving average. The prior ascending wedge that developed from the $82,000 demand region has now broken to the downside, and spot is trading around the former breakout and local support near $89,000–$90,000.
As long as the market remains capped below the 100-day moving average and fails to reclaim the broken wedge structure, the broader picture favors a range between the $82,000–$84,000 demand zone and the $95,000–$97,000 supply zone, with risk of a deeper test toward the lower boundary if bounces continue to be sold.
BTC/USDT 4-Hour Chart
The 4-hour chart shows the breakdown from the rising channel that carried the asset from approximately $84,000 to the recent $96,000 high. After losing the channel support and the $90,000 intraday pivot, the price has found tentative support just above $88,000–$89,000, coinciding with the origin of the last impulsive leg higher.
Momentum on the 4-hour RSI has rebounded from oversold territory but remains below prior highs, suggesting only a corrective bounce so far within a short-term downtrend. A sustained recovery above $92,000 would open the door to a retest of $95,000, whereas failure to hold $88,000–$89,000 would significantly increase the probability of a move toward the $82,000 daily demand region, or even lower.
On-Chain Analysis
The adjusted SOPR (aSOPR) and its 30-day EMA have been trending lower for several months, moving from clearly profitable territory above 1.03–1.04 to below the neutral band around 1.00. This indicates that realized profits on spent outputs have steadily compressed and that an increasing share of coins is being sold near breakeven, with intermittent episodes of realized losses when aSOPR dips below 1.
Structurally, such a decline in realized profitability typically signals a late-cycle or post-euphoric phase in which speculative excess is being unwound and weaker hands gradually exit.
If aSOPR stabilizes around 1 while price holds higher-timeframe support, it would suggest a healthier, more balanced market that is flushing out marginal sellers without broad capitulation; a sustained drop of the 30-day exponential moving average of the aSOPR below 1, by contrast, would point to a deeper profit-taking and loss-realization regime consistent with a more extended corrective phase.
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