Coinbase Premium Index stays deep in negative territory as CryptoQuant data shows US institutions selling Bitcoin, not buying, since the November 2025 peak.
The signal has been negative for months. On-chain analytics platform CryptoQuant flagged a persistent and deepening discount on Coinbase relative to Binance, one that started around the November 2025 peak near $125K and never really left.
The Coinbase Premium Index measures the spread between Coinbase Pro and Binance prices. Green bars mean US institutional demand is active. Red bars mean the opposite. Right now, according to CryptoQuant’s analysis, the bars have been red for a long time.
The 2024 Playbook Broke Down at $125K
During the 2024 bull run, rising prices and a rising premium moved in step. US institutional participation was consistent and it showed in the data. That relationship snapped at the November 2025 top.
As price rolled over from that peak, the premium flipped negative and stayed there. The worst readings came in January 2026 when Bitcoin collapsed into the mid-$60K range. The index hit below -0.20 during that stretch. That kind of reading does not show up during routine corrections. Per the CryptoQuant report, it shows up during distribution.
Analysts tracking this same period noted structural fragility well before the drop. The Coinbase Premium Collapse report published May 29 documented how US-based sellers were pushing prices below offshore market levels, a move historically tied to institutional behavior, not retail.
Bitcoin Bounced. The Premium Did Not Follow
Bitcoin ground from those January lows to a local high near $83K. That is a recovery of roughly $18,000 from the bottom. Green premium bars appeared only briefly. Isolated spikes. Nothing sustained.
At the $83K local high, according to CryptoQuant, the premium deepened further into negative territory instead of confirming the move. US institutions were treating $83K as a place to sell into. Not a level to add at.
The chart below shows exactly what that looks like across the full cycle. Green bars aligned with rising prices through most of 2024 and into the first half of 2025. After November 2025, the relationship broke.
Source: CryptoQuant — Coinbase Premium Index:
Price has since pulled back to $74K. The index sits at -0.15 as of the latest reading. That is still deeply negative after price has already come off its highs. Buying conviction has not returned.
CryptoQuant CEO Ki Young Ju issued a separate warning, flagging an 18-month bear cycle running potentially to early 2027. That analysis was published May 29 and points to Bitcoin breaking below $79K as a structural shift, setting up lower highs and lower lows since.
Until the Coinbase Premium Index builds a consistently positive baseline alongside rising prices, the structural demand needed to confirm a new leg higher remains absent. That is the CryptoQuant view. The data does not disagree with it right now.