Today the crypto market is in serious trouble.
To tell the truth, it has already been this way for a few days, and today it seems that the crash may have come to an end.
However, the price levels reached are decidedly low, and some fear that there may not be a rebound in the short term.
Bitcoin
The price of Bitcoin has fallen below $68,000 for the first time in the last almost two months.
The problem is that between Monday and yesterday, in just two days, it lost 9%, even though this is not an especially rare crash.
In fact, between the end of January and the beginning of February the crash was 32% over just nine days, while in the last nine days the drop has been “only” 16%.
It is precisely this difference that makes many suspect that the decline may not be over, but there is instead a solid piece of data that suggests the opposite.
In fact, just as at the end of January, behind these crashes there was the capitulation of long positions, liquidated in large quantities and in a short time. Well, the recent capitulation of long positions ended last night, since there are now few long positions left to liquidate.
This still does not rule out at all that the decline may continue, because if many short positions started to be opened, or holders started selling, even in the absence of liquidations of long positions the price could fall. However, at this moment buying seems to be temporarily prevailing, and this historically makes it difficult for the decline to continue in the short term.
The situation, however, could change in the coming days or weeks, especially if many new long positions were opened, ready once again to be liquidated.
Ethereum
As far as Ethereum is concerned, the situation seems even more complicated.
In fact, the low reached today, just above $1,800, turns out to be the lowest since the yearly low on February 6, recorded at just under $1,750.
If, however, instead of analyzing the performance of the price of Ethereum in US dollars you analyze it in Bitcoin (ETHBTC), the scenario that emerges is a bit different.
In fact, after a long decline lasting a month and a half, from mid-April to the end of May, there was a small attempt at a rebound.
On Monday, while the price of Bitcoin was starting its crash, Ethereum’s drop was less significant, so much so that the price of ETH in Bitcoin rose from 0.0270 BTC to yesterday’s 0.0290.
It has now fallen exactly to an intermediate level, 0.0280 BTC, but at least it seems fairly clear that the downward trend that began in mid-April is now exhausted. The attempted rebound, however, seems to have failed, and therefore at this moment it is possible that the price performance of Ethereum will be limited to following that of Bitcoin.
Altcoins
The situation changes again if we consider the other altcoins as a whole.
To do this, it is useful to analyze the so-called Total3, that is, the market capitalization of altcoins excluding Ethereum and stablecoins, as well as obviously Bitcoin.
In fact, the low reached last night, at about 707 billion dollars, is well above the April low reached at 684 billion at the beginning of the month.
However, it must be said that between April and May Total3 rose less than Bitcoin, and so the recent drop appears less unusual.
Starting from mid-May, Bitcoin has lost 19%, while Total3 has been limited to a little more than -7%.
If altcoins therefore seem to be holding up slightly better than Bitcoin, compared to Ethereum they are holding up decidedly better.
It is enough to consider that in the last seven days there are even altcoins in strong growth, such as Hyperliquid’s HYPE, which is recording a remarkable +16%, thanks to which it has risen to ninth place among the crypto with the largest market capitalization. Stellar’s XLM is even at +56%, while TON and Zcash are at +8%.
It should be specified, however, that these are rare exceptions, because most altcoins are suffering more or less as much as BTC and ETH.
Forecasts
Negative forecasts are currently pouring in, but the phase of capitulation of long positions that generated this recent crash has ended.
Although it is not possible to completely rule out further declines, a new phase began today, which, however, it is still too early to correctly decipher.
Sentiment is still certainly negative, and it cannot be ruled out that over the coming weeks or months conditions similar to those that led to the recent drop may form.
For example, four months have passed from the low of February 6 to today’s low, and in four months it will be October. The second part of autumn is always a difficult period for the crypto market during major bear markets, and history could repeat itself once more, after 2014, 2018 and 2022.
However, 2026 so far does have some differences compared to the past, and this leads to the belief that it is by no means a given that the yearly lows must necessarily occur at the end of the year, far below the current lows.