Macro Factors to Shape Bitcoin Prices: Coinbase's Insights Post-Halving

All eyes are on the upcoming Bitcoin halving scheduled for mid-April 2024, which will reduce the rewards granted to miners for validating transactions by half. This will mark the fourth occurrence of a halving event in Bitcoin’s history.

Although the market is currently experiencing a downturn, Bitcoin has seen significant growth of more than 150% since mid-October last year. According to the latest “handbook” by Coinbase, this strong performance will continue up to and after the upcoming halving.

Coinbase Warns of Limited Historical Evidence

Even though there’s a chance the halving could positively influence Bitcoin’s performance, Coinbase pointed out that the historical evidence supporting this connection is limited, making it somewhat speculative. Additionally, Bitcoin’s price is influenced by factors beyond crypto-specific events like halvings, indicating that it doesn’t operate in isolation.

It is evident that a significant portion of Bitcoin’s recent surge was propelled more by optimism regarding spot Bitcoin ETFs rather than excitement surrounding the halving. Looking forward, Coinbase said that there are several macroeconomic factors that are poised to influence Bitcoin prices significantly.

Coinbase anticipates the US Federal Reserve to start rate cuts as early as May and initiate a reduction in its quantitative tightening program shortly thereafter.

The handbook also drew attention to the possibility of heightened selling pressure from miners, who may sell a larger portion of their rewards, as well as from companies emerging from bankruptcy, such as former crypto lenders Celsius Network and Genesis Global.

Bitcoin’s On-Chain Analytics

Upon assessing on-chain analytics, Coinbase observed that the current cycle closely mirrors the period from 2018 to 2022, during which the leading crypto asset saw a 500% increase from its lowest point.

Its handbook also shared an interesting observation about the total supply of Bitcoin held by long-term investors – individuals who retain their crypto holdings for a minimum of 155 days. Historically, this timeframe indicates a notable decline in the likelihood of these assets being sold off.

Assuming all other factors remain constant, Coinbase said that the long-term holders are expected to be less inclined than short-term holders to see halvings as a chance to capitalize on market strength by selling.