Since the end of the third quarter of 2025, the broader crypto market has shown relative weakness, with most crypto trading below long-term moving averages.
In fact, the total market cap of all cryptocurrencies, excluding Bitcoin, sat at around $1.5 trillion at press time, a significant jump from $1.3 trillion.
However, the market cap remained down approximately 21% from the October peak of $1.9 trillion, reflecting weakened capital rotation. This persistent weakness underscores a significant shift away from altcoins, thereby favoring Bitcoin’s continued stability.
Alt index shows sustained weakness
The Altcoin Season Index, which measures the percentage of major altcoins outpacing Bitcoin [BTC], has remained relatively low. The index has remained below the 75 threshold for a valid altcoin season since September 2025.
Source: BlockchainCenter
With the index holding below this level for a prolonged period, it shows that most altcoins have recorded poor performance over the past three months. Thus, other coins, excluding Bitcoin, have largely experienced bearish pressure, with capital flowing out.
At press time, the Altcoin Season Index stood at 41, indicating that fewer than 50% of altcoins outperformed Bitcoin over the past 90 days.
Source: CoinMarketCap
At the same time, the Altcoin Season Index, based on the top 100 cryptocurrencies relative to Bitcoin, according to CoinMarketCap, was around 29/100. This shows the market has largely shifted towards BTC over this period.
Such a low performance showed that only a handful of coins, such as Monero, Zcash, and MYX, have posted significant gains.
Source: Capriole
At the same time, Altcoin Speculative Index sat around 21.1% as of this writing, further reinforcing altcoins’ weakness.
It’s still Bitcoin’s season
While altcoins have continued to underperform, BTC dominance has climbed significantly. As such, Bitcoin’s dominance has remained above 50 for three consecutive months despite a drop from the October peaks of 63.
At press time, (BTC.D) held around 59, a zone it has hovered around since its rebound from a 57 dip. With dominance at 59%, it suggested that significant capital rotated into Bitcoin despite continued market weakness.
Source: TradingView
At this rate, the altcoin season seems far placed, as BTC.D must drop below 50 to consider a possible altcoin, levels not witnessed since 2023.
Bitcoin has shown significant strength, with capital flowing into the asset as institutional demand through ETFs soared. With higher capital flows, BTC tightened its grip on the market through 2025, and the trend has continued into 2026.
The current trend suggests continued market pressure on altcoins, especially if more investors continue to rotate into BTC.
Is an altcoin upsurge in sight?
The altcoin market has experienced selective breakouts and rallies since the market turned bearish in October 2025. As such, privacy-centered tokens, such as Monero [XMR], Zcash [ZEC], and Dash [DASH] have made significant gains.
These gains in specific altcoins have failed to translate into positive momentum across all altcoins, and capital has largely rotated into these coins.
Source: CoinMarketCap
For the broader altcoin market rally, institutional capital needs to flow into major altcoins, including Ethereum [ETH], Solana [SOL], and Ripple [XRP] ETFs.
As of this writing, the capital continues to favor Bitcoin, signaling potential extension of this dominance through the year. Therefore, for now, an altcoin season seems far-fetched, as Bitcoin continues to record higher capital rotation.
For a significant shift in power dynamics, Bitcoin either needs to retrace and record further losses, as witnessed in Q4, or altcoins need to be more attractive to investors.
Final Thoughts
- Altcoin season index has held below the 75 threshold since September 2025, indicating weak performance relative to Bitcoin
- Bitcoin dominance has held above 50, currently stuck at 59, signaling continued capital rotation into BTC and ruling out any likelihood of an altcoin season.