 
 
A growing number of XRP holders have questioned why the asset hasn’t entered a vertical breakout, despite improving fundamentals across regulation, adoption, and infrastructure.
According to analyst Sterndrew, the answer lies entirely in November’s U.S. ISM Manufacturing PMI. The reading came in at 48.2, missing expectations of 49 and signaling continued contraction.
Since ISM reflects whether over 400 surveyed manufacturers are expanding or slowing, through new orders, production, hiring, supplier deliveries, and inventory levels, any print below 50 confirms the economy is still cooling.
That matters for XRP because history shows that its explosive phases have never started in economic weakness.
In both 2017 and 2021, major XRP rallies ignited only after ISM climbed firmly above 55, when demand, hiring, and production were surging. Those conditions typically coincide with expanding liquidity, stronger risk appetite, and broad inflows into high-beta assets like XRP.
 
With ISM still in slowdown territory, the macro engine that drives true XRP supercycles simply hasn’t switched on.
Looking ahead, analysts see a potential setup forming, but not yet firing. Expected 2026 rate cuts, easier financial conditions, and improving system-wide liquidity are the same forces that historically pushed ISM above 50 and then into the expansion zone that supported prior XRP booms.
Combined with Ripple Prime, global corridor expansion, APAC regulatory progress, and the emerging identity layer on XRPL, along with upcoming macro tailwinds, may ultimately align with the project’s strongest-ever fundamentals.
Data from CoinMarketCap show that XRP’s technicals are weakening, with bearish divergences. Yet, institutional demand remains strong.
ETFs are gaining momentum, and whales have accumulated in recent months. A decisive break above $3.40 could confirm a bullish reversal, while rejection at that level risks driving the asset deeper into consolidation.
Meanwhile, Ripple’s pursuit of a banking license and Fed Master Account could integrate XRP into traditional finance, especially as XRPL upgrades (AMMs, confidential tokens, batch transactions) expand its utility.
Until ISM turns upward, the spark that triggered every previous XRP cycle remains missing. When it returns, analysts say the move “will not be subtle.”