Geopolitical tensions continue to influence global markets, but their echo is much stronger in the cryptocurrency market. The report published by Binance Research on June 30, 2025, based on FRED and Nasdaq data, offers a detailed snapshot of how Bitcoin and the Nasdaq-100 have reacted to recent developments in the Middle East.
The conclusion is clear: Bitcoin confirms itself as a risk amplifier and a high-beta asset, while the Nasdaq-100 has demonstrated greater stability.
Global context: the fuse lit in the Middle East
After a brilliant recovery of the markets between April and May, June was marked by a military escalation in the Middle East that fueled a wave of risk-off sentiment. Investors reduced their exposure to riskier assets, resulting in an increase in perceived economic uncertainty.
Fortunately, the Geneva peace talks led to a temporary truce between the United States and China, culminating in a trade agreement that reduced tariffs and countermeasures by the end of the month.
These developments have marked the end of short-term commercial uncertainty, but they have highlighted the different nature of two crucial assets: Bitcoin and US tech stocks.
The test of the numbers: Bitcoin versus Nasdaq-100
The chart of the report uses the World Equity Market-related Economic Uncertainty Index (WLEMUINDXD) to measure the climate of uncertainty. The data collected between the end of April and June tell an interesting story:
| Asset / Index | Reaction during the crisis (June 12-23) | June closing |
| Bitcoin (BTC) | -11% (from ~$110,316 to ~$98,000) | ~$107,167 |
| Nasdaq-100 | -1.3% (intermediate low) | +5.5% |
| WLEMU Index | Rising, but below April highs | Declining after the truce |
These data demonstrate that Bitcoin is much more sensitive to geopolitical shocks compared to traditional stock indices, which tend to react less to distant crises and recover more quickly.
Bitcoin: an amplifier of risk
The crypto market has amplified global turbulences. Two key factors explain this behavior:
- Mainly retail investor base, more prone to panic and speculation.
- High financial leverage on derivatives, which fuels forced liquidations.
Not by chance, on June 22, the largest wave of liquidations on Bitcoin since February 2025 was recorded, with a value exceeding 1.5 billion dollars in just 72 hours. However, institutional inflows into crypto funds have highlighted the growing bifurcation between short-term investors and those with a long-term horizon.
Nasdaq-100: resilience and confidence
On the contrary, US tech stocks have shown remarkable resilience, thanks to the strength of domestic demand and the absence of a direct impact from Middle Eastern tensions on economic fundamentals. The Nasdaq-100 managed to close June with a +5.5%, confirming the market’s confidence in the tech sector.
Growth of crypto ETFs: institutions increasingly present
Despite short-term volatility, capital inflows into crypto ETFs have continued to grow, a sign of long-term confidence. In June, Bitcoin ETFs attracted net flows of 4.49 billion dollars, while those on Ethereum collected another 1.16 billion dollars.
This divergence — retail traders focused on the short term and institutional investors concentrated on the long term — is redefining the role of criptovalute in diversified portfolios.
3 key lessons for investors
- Bitcoin is a speculative and high-beta asset: perfect for those seeking high returns and accepting strong fluctuations, but less suitable for those seeking stability.
- US tech stocks remain resilient to regional crises, except for an escalation towards a global energy crisis.
- The long term remains promising for crypto, thanks to growing institutional support.
Conclusion: Bitcoin between volatility and opportunity
The analysis by Binance Research confirms that Bitcoin, while perceived as a long-term store of value, remains extremely volatile in the short term, especially in response to geopolitical shocks. Investors should therefore carefully calibrate their time horizon and risk appetite, diversifying between traditional assets and crypto.
The interest of Wall Street in Bitcoin and Ethereum, demonstrated by the strong inflows into ETFs, reinforces the narrative of cryptocurrencies as a credible component of a modern investment strategy. However, active risk management remains crucial to navigate the inevitable short-term volatility.