“We’re still early,” analyst says as Bitcoin profitability dynamics reveal a shift in BTC supply profitability on the horizon.
Bitcoin (BTC) bull market “FOMO” has yet to appear despite BTC price being up 120% this year.
Data from statistics platform Look Into Bitcoin shows that on-chain transactions are only starting to involve “younger” bitcoins.
Bitcoin bull market analysis: “We’re still early”
Bitcoin remains near 18-month highs and well beyond its bear market trading range and several key resistance levels.
While the number of smaller wallets is increasing, there has not been a major return to the network from speculators — those holding BTC for short periods of time.
In an X post on Nov. 16, Look Into Bitcoin creator Philip Swift flagged the Realized Cap HODL Waves metric, also known as RHODL Waves, as proof.
RHODL splits the existing HODL Waves metric, which divides BTC by age group of the supply, and compares it to the price at which they last moved on-chain.
The result is a spike in coins, which move frequently during bull market phases, and the opposite in bear markets, where investors are afraid to sell or are in the red on their holdings.
“Warmer colour low timeframe waves are only just starting to increase as coins are transferred on-chain,” Swift commented on the current state of RHODL.
“No FOMO yet. We’re still early.”
Bitcoin profitability nears “potential breakeven point”
Continuing the examination of Bitcoin supply “age bands,” Onchained, a contributor to on-chain analytics platform CryptoQuant, stressed that those who increased BTC exposure in the run-up to the 2021 all-time highs remain underwater.
Related: Bitcoin institutional inflows top $1B in 2023 amid BTC supply squeeze
He did so using the Net Unrealized Profit/Loss (NUPL) indicator, which offers profitability ratios for cohorts of stored coins.
Coming soon, however, is a key line in the sand for bull market hodlers.
“Considering NUPL across different age bands provides insights into profitability dynamics. Notably, the depicted graph reveals all UTXO age bands currently in a profitable state, except for holders with bitcoins held for 18 months to 3 years,” Onchained wrote in one of CryptoQuant’s Quicktake market updates on Nov. 16.
“This aligns with their entry during the Bitcoin price rally to $67,000. Their NUPL nearing the profitability benchmark of 0 suggests a potential break-even point if Bitcoin continues its rally beyond $39,000.”
CryptoQuant data shows that the overall proportion of unspent transaction outputs, or UTXOs, currently at a loss is now just 11.6%.
As Cointelegraph reported, whale entities have been increasing BTC selling at current prices.
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