Bitcoin (BTC) trades at the upper edge of its $108,000-$116,000 air gap range ahead of the Federal Reserve meeting on Sept. 17, and relies on the policy messaging.
BTC traded at $115,046.29 as of press time, down by 0.2% in the past 24 hours. According to the Bitfinex Alpha report, Bitcoin needs a sustained break above $116,000 resistance to signal renewed momentum toward higher targets.
On the other hand, failure to break the resistance could prompt retests of the $107,500 support level.
On-chain data shows short-term holders realizing $189 million daily profits, creating selling pressure that could intensify if Fed signals prove disappointing.
The report noted that Bitcoin’s position at range resistance makes the FOMC outcome particularly consequential.
A decisive reclaim above $116,000 opens pathways for meaningful recovery, while range-bound action continues until clearer monetary policy signals emerge.
Rate cut scenarios drive market positioning
MEXC chief analyst Shawn Young expects extreme volatility, as traders recalibrate their expectations.
In a note, he said a dovish Fed outlook with aggressive easing signals could drive Bitcoin toward $120,000-$125,000 as capital rotates from bonds into risk assets.
However, cautious messaging about future cuts may trigger unwinding of leveraged positions and retests of $107,000-$108,000 support.
Young stated:
“Bitcoin now sits at the center of macroeconomic tension, which could drive it in either direction depending on Fed policy direction.”
He added that altcoins face particular pressure if hawkish tones emerge. Sygnum Bank Head of Investments Fabian Dori noted the complex backdrop complicating predictions.
While labor market weakness supports cuts, sticky inflation near 3% and re-accelerating business activity create conflicting signals that may prompt the Fed to exercise caution.
Technical breakout depends on Fed tone
The air gap range represents a critical juncture where Bitcoin must overcome resistance built by supply redistribution since the August highs.
VALR CEO Farzam Ehsani stressed that sustained monetary easing remains necessary for Bitcoin to challenge $120,000 to $125,000 levels, while insufficient liquidity support could force retests of $100,000-$105,000.
Bitcoin ETF inflows totaling $2.3 billion last week demonstrate institutional positioning ahead of the decision.
However, the BTC’s underperformance against gold and equities reflects cautious sentiment until clearer easing trajectories emerge. The market is preparing for whipsaw volatility as the Fed navigates inflation risks against concerns about employment.
As a result, Bitcoin’s direction hinges on whether policymakers signal aggressive accommodation or measured restraint in the coming months.