In brief
- Bitcoin extended a January rebound, but positioning in perpetual futures has remained flat, leaving analysts cautious about the strength of the move.
- Futures and spot signals point to limited conviction, with open interest well below prior peaks, an ask-skewed order book, and weak U.S. spot demand.
- Options markets have turned more constructive, though analysts say recent upside interest reflects short-covering and volatility trades rather than fresh directional bets.
Bitcoin’s ascent since the start of 2026 has pushed it close to $95,000, its highest level in six weeks. Although the general crypto market outlook is improving, a closer look at the top crypto shows flat perpetuals contract positioning, leaving analysts cautiously optimistic.
The top crypto reached a peak of $94,420 on Monday, marking a 7.7% surge from the year-to-date opening price of $87,611, according to CoinGecko data.
Despite the relief rally, Bitcoin’s aggregated open interest remains flat, around $31.4 billion, or roughly 34% lower than October 10’s $47.8 billion, CryptoQuant data shows.
Although new positions are contributing to the rally, investor positioning remains well below that at the previous market peak.
The run-up from January 2 has been accompanied by an ask-skewed order book at 5% and 10% depth from the current price, indicating that sellers are in control, according to CoinGlass data. The Coinbase Premium indicator has also remained largely negative, suggesting that spot demand for Bitcoin among U.S. investors is weak.
While perpetual positioning may be shaky, the options market shows a more promising shift. The 7-day 25-delta skew, a premium for downside protection, recently flipped positive, suggesting the recovery has alleviated the need for bearish bets. The 30-day skew remains negative but is close to zero, per Deribit data.
“On the options front, positioning has turned increasingly constructive with a reduction in put skew across all tenors and with more than 3,000 contracts of 30 Jan 2026 $100,000 calls purchased since last week,” according to Singapore-based trading firm QCP Capital’s Monday note.
Still, QCP analysts struck a cautious note, saying much of the recent demand for upside exposure came through options trades designed to profit from large price moves in either direction.
That activity suggests Bitcoin’s rebound was driven in part by short-covering, as traders rushed to close out bearish bets rather than by fresh, conviction buying.
“The backdrop is supportive: January ETF flows have been strong, led by institutional demand, and major wealth platforms are widening access,” Rachael Lucas, Crypto Analyst at BTC Markets, told Decrypt. “Seasonality helps too; the Santa rally carried momentum into January, and Q1 typically favours risk assets when liquidity is supportive.”
However, Lucas maintains a cautious stance, suggesting that traders monitor the downside, particularly the $92,000 and $90,000 levels, should ETF inflows fade or macroeconomic conditions turn hawkish.
“For now, the bid feels earned, but any break above $95,000 needs volume; if it’s thin, expect profit taking before the next leg,” Lucas said.
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