Bitcoin’s value vs. gold drops to 18.5 oz/BTC, a multi-year low, amid record gold highs and rare valuation levels.
Bitcoin’s value compared with gold has dropped to a rare historical level, according to recent market data.
Analysts following long term pricing models say the Bitcoin to gold ratio now sits far below past norms. Such conditions have appeared only a few times during earlier market cycles.
Bitcoin-to-Gold Ratio Reaches Multi-Year Low
The Bitcoin to gold ratio measures how many ounces of gold are required to buy one Bitcoin.
According to KCEX, this ratio recently fell to about 18.5 ounces per Bitcoin. It marked the lowest level since November 2023.
🎯 INSIGHT: Bitcoin-to-gold ratio has dropped to 18.5 oz/ $BTC, marking its lowest level since November 2023.#Gold’s strength is widely seen as a reflection of structural shifts in the global monetary system and a renewed preference for hard assets.
If capital continues to… pic.twitter.com/H3MGDqHi5T— KCEX (@KCEX_Official) January 22, 2026
The move followed a sharp rise in gold prices, which reached near $4,888 per ounce.
At the same time, Bitcoin struggled to stay above the $90,000 level. This divergence placed pressure on Bitcoin’s relative performance.
Analysts noted that the ratio now sits well below long-term averages. Some described the reading as an outlier within historical data. The level is rarely observed under normal market conditions.
Power Law Models Show Rare Statistical Readings
Several analysts use power law models to study Bitcoin long-term price behavior. These models track trends across long periods rather than short market moves. Current readings fall far below expected ranges.
According to analyst Sminston, the ratio’s quantile is near 10^10. This places the reading among the rarest observations in the data set.
Such levels show Bitcoin priced unusually low in gold terms.
Checking in on Bitcoin’s power law in GOLD 💰🪙
– – –
This is seriously a historic ‘Black Swan’ for the BTC/Gold ratio.Whether we are experiencing a precious metal bubble, soon to pop, or a true transition of the monetary order (a la Ray Dalio), next moves imply huge BTC gains.… pic.twitter.com/vFTJ9OkWmk
— Sminston With 👁 (@sminston_with) January 22, 2026
The data also shows Bitcoin trading well below its historical 1% range against gold. Analysts say similar deviations occurred during past stress periods.
These periods often coincided with shifts in investor preference.
Analyst Views on Gold Strength and Capital Rotation
Gold’s recent strength has been linked to broader macro trends. Some analysts cited growing interest in hard assets amid global financial changes. Gold has attracted capital flows earlier in this cycle.
Capriole Investments founder Charles Edwards noted that long gold bull markets averaged gains above 150%.
He stated that gold could continue rising over several years. This could maintain pressure on the ratio in the near term.
Other analysts suggested the ratio may be near trend exhaustion. Crypto analyst Decode used Elliott wave theory to assess the pattern. He stated the structure may signal the final stage of a downtrend.
Related Reading: Bitwise Launches ETF Backed by Bitcoin and Gold to Hedge Fiat Risk
Bitcoin Valuation and Market Monitoring
Bitwise analyst André Dragosch described the ratio as a contrarian signal. He said Bitcoin appears discounted compared with gold on a relative basis. He added that such conditions are very rare.
Dragosch linked gold’s rise to structural shifts in the monetary system.
He referenced views shared by Ray Dalio on reduced reliance on sovereign bonds. Gold has benefited earlier under this framework.
📌RE: Gold –> #Bitcoin Rotation
Macro contrarian lens: $BTC is trading at a steep discount to Gold on a relative basis.
These asymmetric setups are very rare.
If flows turn, Q1 2026 could be the inflection point. pic.twitter.com/HmkCdyR1Tn
— André Dragosch, PhD⚡ (@Andre_Dragosch) January 19, 2026
Dragosch stated that capital often rotates in stages. Gold tends to attract flows before risk assets like Bitcoin.
Analysts continue to monitor whether such rotation develops in the coming periods.
Market participants watch the Bitcoin to gold ratio for broader context. The metric helps compare relative strength between hard assets. Analysts stress that historical patterns do not guarantee future outcomes.