Bitcoin approaches $106K as technicals identify an 88K support area. Writers mention volatility prospects because on-chain indicators bias near-term movement.
The October price behavior of Bitcoin depicted a scenario of extreme intramonth movements and then a surprisingly flat month-end close around the $106,000 mark.
Analysts point to the dynamics on-chain as a key to the interpretation of the next leg. The market is now focusing on a critical on-chain support area at about $88,000, and short-term holders are struggling to preserve cost basis.
Such a movement indicates new volatility potentials into November, as the BTC will be able to stabilize at a higher price than the short-term realized price, or achieve lower support.
Bitcoin’s October saga
Bitcoin performed a turbulent October, surging to new heights before plunging during a fall of liquidations.
Source- X
The price action was very volatile, but the month closed with minimal net movement as it remained around the 106k mark, and the momentum may be drying up following the ATH spike and a historic liquidation.
This rollercoaster act has traders reconsidering immediate risk and possible support levels as we head into November.
The episode highlights the speed with which sentiment can turn in a market where macro uncertainty and ETF demand are actively shifting, and the market price is pegged to a complicated combination of on-chain indicators and external catalysts.
On-chain dynamics and near-term risk
The most important on-chain indicators are indicating a tug-of-war between new buyers and the market.
The short-term holders (those having bought BTC in approximately the past 5 months) are trading at a realized price of about $113,100.
Bitcoin temporarily fell below this level following a few days of early October strength and has since been unable to maintain a weekly close above that in subsequent weeks, which is indicative of continued near-term cost basis pressure.
In case BTC is not able to remain above this turnover rate, risk sentiment may deteriorate in the short term.
A defining on-chain support sits at around $88,000
In addition to the short-term realized price, analysts note a higher on-chain support of about $88,000, where the active realized price is located.
This figure disregards inactive coins and puts more emphasis on coins actively exchanged in the market.
Should Bitcoin not regain the STH achieved price, the traders might consider the $88k area as a potential lower limit before any further upward endeavor.
Long-term holders, whose cost basis is much lower than prevailing prices, seem immune to this level, implying that the sell-off pressure can be confined to shorter-duration holdings in the meantime.
Market outlook as November begins
The immediate test at approximately $113k still remains in the spotlight of momentum, and a long-lasting upward action above this level may open the path to greater heights.
On the other hand, a decline below the $88k level might encourage further correction, which would probe support and possible liquidity levels.
Investors will monitor macro signs, flows, and liquidity that have previously influenced BTC’s volatility and its chances of reaching past highs.