Bitcoin’s price has suffered quite a bit since the end of March, losing over $15,000 in this period. Moreover, the asset’s downwards trajectory has set a negative record as it closed six consecutive weeks with red candles for the first time in nearly eight years.
Six Red Ones in a Row
Let’s go back to the middle of March. The BTC landscape was not all that favorable as it struggled below $40,000. However, it all changed when the asset initiated two massive weekly leg ups that resulted in nearing $50,000.
The community was beginning to rejoice, the Fear and Greed Index went into “greed” territory for the first time in almost a year, and everything seemed to be blossoming.
Yet, what comes up must go down, as the saying goes. Bitcoin was not only halted in its tracks at the coveted $50,000 line but went into a negative streak that continues until this day – more than six weeks later.
As the chart below demonstrates, BTC has been freefalling since the end of March. Going down to $33,000 earlier today means that the asset has lost approximately $17,000. And it has closed with red weekly candles six times in a row for the first time since 2014.
There’s a lot of resemblance between the two negative streaks. Back then, BTC was two years after its halving (the first one ever, at the time), which is a period typically associated with bullish price developments. Indeed, BTC had soared by nearly 100x since the halving to the local peak at above $1,100 before it started its not-so-gradual descent.
Thus, between late August 2014 and late September 2014, the cryptocurrency was registering weekly closes in the red.
More Pain to Come?
Despite breaking the adverse streak with a substantial green candle, bitcoin dumped further in the following several weeks back then. In fact, it marked a low at $155 in the middle of January 2015.
As such, if the resemblances continue now as well, it would be safe to prepare for another nosedive. This was recently forecasted by a popular crypto analyst, who relied on BTC’s realized price – it shows the value of all coins at the price they were purchased at divided by the entire BTC amount in circulation.
As of now, that price stands at $24,300, according to data from Glassnode, which could mean another near $10,000 drop.
A #bitcoin dip down to it’s realized price (average on-chain cost basis) is entirely possible and has been consistent with previous market bottoms in bear market cycles.
Realized price is $24.3k at the moment.
— Dylan LeClair 🟠 (@DylanLeClair_) May 9, 2022
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