Bitcoin Miners Flip the Script: Why They're Accumulating Instead of Selling This Cycle

CryptoQuant has flagged a major change in Bitcoin miners’ strategies, with implications that could reshape investor expectations for the current cycle.

In previous instances, the Miners’ Position Index (MPI) has spiked in two key scenarios: before halvings, when miners strategically sell part of their reserves, and during the final stages of bull markets, when they offload aggressively into surging retail demand.

This cycle, however, reveals a divergence.

Miners Are Holding Like Never Before

While limited pre-halving selling is evident, the hallmark late-stage capitulation has not materialized. The latest report shared by CryptoQuant said that factors such as US spot Bitcoin ETF approvals and the growing trend of sovereign entities adopting BTC as a reserve asset are encouraging miners to prioritize long-term accumulation over short-term liquidity.

At the same time, Bitcoin’s mining difficulty has reached record highs, as its trajectory entered the so-called “Banana Zone” of steep increases. This points to expanding miner participation and increased competition.

Transaction fees also provide a critical signal. In prior cycles, fee spikes in dollar terms typically coincided with overheated markets and preceded downturns. However, this time, even as fees surged, Bitcoin’s price has advanced in a measured stair-step fashion and has avoided the rapid peaks and subsequent crashes of earlier cycles.

All in all, these on-chain signals indicate a structural change in miner behavior. Rather than rushing to sell into market strength, miners appear to be aligning with institutional investors and nation-states in adopting an accumulation-focused strategy.

For investors, the combination of high difficulty, surge in fees, and muted MPI means that Bitcoin’s bullish momentum is being supported by a more durable foundation than in previous cycles, boosting a medium- to long-term positive outlook.

Signs of Strength

Alphractal founder and crypto analyst Joao Wedson highlighted BTC’s mixed performance trends in his latest tweet. He found that while the asset’s overall performance up to September 2025 trails behind most of its historical years, it still outpaces the significant weak cycles of 2014, 2018, and 2022.

Focusing specifically on September, Wedson pointed out that Bitcoin is performing better than its historical average this month, and ranks behind only 2012, 2015, 2016, and 2022, which could mean that September may not be as bearish as expected.

Another crypto analyst described Bitcoin’s current chart formation as the “inverse head and shoulders of dreams,” and claimed that the double pattern indicates the start of a supercycle. According to the analyst, this setup makes a $150,000 BTC price target seem inevitable rather than speculative despite the current struggle.