Bitcoin’s open interest has surged past $11 billion for the first time in over two years. This uptick comes when the world’s most valuable coin surges, recently easing past $51,000, the highest level since December 2021.
Surging Open Interest And Order Book Imbalance
According to Kaiko, a leading crypto analytics provider, this upswing in open interest comes at a critical time for the coin. When prices zoomed past $48,000 on February 11, there was an order book imbalance. Then, Kaiko observed there were $100 million more bids than asks.
Technically, whenever there is an order book imbalance with more bids than asks, it suggests that buyers are more willing and enthusiastic to purchase at spot rates than sellers are willing to liquidate. Following this imbalance, prices shot higher the following days, breaking above the $50,000 psychological number to over $51,500 when writing on February 14.
Surging open interest, especially as the market trends higher, is bullish. It means that more people are willing to participate in the market, hopeful of riding the trend. Subsequently, their participation translates to a more liquid market, charging the upside momentum.
Bitcoin is racing higher at the back of strong inflows into spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs). Over the past few weeks, spot Bitcoin ETF issuers have been rapidly accumulating the coin. The largest so far is BlackRock’s IBIT, owning over 70,000 BTC.
As a result, prices are edging higher, reflecting the high demand pinned directly to institutional participation. This positive sentiment and expectations of even more price gains, translating to higher open interest, is despite the continued liquidation of the Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC). Following court approval, GBTC is converted into an ETF, joining others like Fidelity, who also offer a similar product.
Genesis Looking To Sell GBTC; Will Bitcoin Rally In March?
Even with the high optimism, a potential cloud hangs over the Bitcoin market. Genesis, a crypto lender under bankruptcy protection, wants the court to allow them to sell over $1.4 billion of GBTC.
If the court green-lights this move, BTC could have more liquidation pressure, possibly unwinding recent gains. So far, the FTX estate sold their GBTC, estimated to be worth over $1 billion, coinciding with Bitcoin dropping to as low as $39,500 in January.
Besides these Bitcoin-specific events, the market is closely watching how the monetary policy scene in the United States will evolve in the next few weeks. The United States Federal Reserve is expected to slash rates in March, a potentially beneficial move for BTC.
Feature image from DALLE, chart from TradingView
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