The bitcoin price briefly crossed the $90,000 mark earlier Monday, rallying from $88,000 during Asian trading hours to just above $90,000 in European and US afternoon trading.
The surge didn’t last long as the bitcoin price dropped down near $88,000 by the end of afternoon.
BTC has displayed a pattern in recent weeks of gaining momentum during Asian and European trading hours, only to see those advances fade once U.S. investors re-enter the market.
Data from CoinGlass show that bitcoin futures open interest climbed earlier in the day toward $60 billion across major trading venues including Binance, CME, and Bybit. The increase suggests fresh leveraged positions are entering the market, rather than mere short-covering.
Rising open interest alongside higher prices does not necessarily signal immediate trouble. But it does heighten the stakes. If momentum stalls, crowded long positions could unwind rapidly, prompting steep pullbacks.
Conversely, if the rally holds, leverage could amplify upside potential.
A sustained move and hold above $90,000 could signal a shift away from the pattern of sharp early-day sell-offs that has characterized much of December. A sustained hold above this level would suggest bullish momentum, while failing to do so may indicate the continuation of the market’s tendency toward lower highs and rapid pullbacks.
Bitcoin price technical levels
Support for the bitcoin price remains near $84,000, a level that has proven resilient in recent weeks. Immediate resistance lies at $91,400, with the next key level at $94,000. Beyond $94,000, analysts point to $98,000 and a zone between $101,000 and $108,000 as strong resistance.
Closing above $108,000 could challenge assumptions that bitcoin price’s 2025 peak marks a long-term top, according to Bitcoin Magazine analysis.
Despite the rally, the U.S. macroeconomic environment remains a key influence on bitcoin’s price trajectory. The Federal Reserve’s policy path is uncertain, in part due to delays in key inflation data caused by the recent government shutdown.
Gabriel Selby, head of research at CF Benchmark, told DLNews that until the Fed receives several months of uninterrupted inflation readings, market participants are unlikely to commit fully to risk assets like bitcoin.
Investors are also monitoring upcoming U.S. economic indicators. GDP figures for the third quarter are due tomorrow, with forecasts pointing to roughly 3.5% annualized growth, slightly below the second quarter’s 3.8% pace. Consumer confidence data and weekly jobless claims will provide additional insights into the labor market, potentially influencing risk appetite.
Potential ‘Santa Rally’
Historical seasonality offers some reason for optimism. The S&P 500 has often rallied during the final five trading days of December and the first two days of January, a pattern known as the “Santa Claus rally.” BTC’s correlation with equities via ETFs means a festive push in stocks could spill over into the crypto market.
Bitcoin’s Santa period performance has been mixed historically. Strong returns of 33% and 46% were recorded in 2011 and 2016, respectively, while other years saw declines. Overall, BTC has averaged a roughly 7.9% gain during the period since 2011.
Gold has been a more consistent performer, delivering a 95% cumulative return over the same window, and its recent record highs above $4,400 an ounce should strong sentiment.
Bitcoin price outlook
For now, sellers remain in control near $89,000, roughly 30% below bitcoin’s October all-time high. Investors pulled nearly $500 million from spot bitcoin ETFs last week, signaling caution amid macro uncertainty.
However, per Bitcoin Magazine data, if bulls maintain support above $84,000 and manage to hold gains above $90,000 during U.S. hours, they may create a foundation for a year-end rally.
The interplay between spot demand, futures leverage, and macroeconomic signals will likely dictate whether the bitcoin price can sustain its push toward the key $94,000 and $101,000 levels in the final weeks of 2025.
BTC was trading at $88,368 at press time, with a 24-hour trading volume of $40 billion. The cryptocurrency’s market capitalization stood at roughly $1.76 trillion, with 19.97 million coins in circulation and a maximum supply capped at 21 million.