Bitcoin (BTC) enters the new week with rare calm, even as macro forces loom that could define the market’s direction through the remainder of August.
Despite low trading volumes characteristic of weekends, the pioneer crypto has exhibited low volatility
Bitcoin Holds Steady as Fed Minutes and Jackson Hole Loom
As of this writing, Bitcoin traded for $117,600, sustaining a horizontal consolidation through the weekend. Data on BiTBO also shows that the volatility index has descended to 1.02%, levels last seen in October 2023.
Bitcoin investor Mike Alfred points to market restraint among traders and investors, noting the absence of speculative froth.
“Great to see zero exuberance in Bitcoin this weekend. No futures gaps to close,” he wrote on X.
The comment highlights a maturing cycle in which retail hype has cooled, and institutional flows increasingly shape Bitcoin price action. Analysts at Bitcoin Archive reinforce this theme, pointing to historically low levels of volatility.
“Bitcoin’s volatility is near all-time lows. Institutional buyers are compressing Bitcoin’s volatility to just double gold’s. Double the volatility for 10x returns? I’ll take it!” they posted.
Nevertheless, the subdued weekend backdrop may not last long, with several market-moving US economic indicators already in the pipeline.
On Wednesday, policymakers will release Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) minutes, after the latest CPI (Consumer Price Index) report revealed inflation rose at an annual rate of 2.7% in July.
This data point will offer a transcript of July’s meeting. It comes after the Fed left rates unchanged at 4.25–4.50% with a 9–2 vote. Notably, this marked the first dual dissent pushing for cuts since 1993. Powell’s subsequent press conference was vague, leaving markets searching for clarity.
The minutes could expose how divided the committee truly is. A dovish tone would likely push stocks higher, yields lower, and weaken the dollar, all bullish turnouts for Bitcoin.
A hawkish message, however, would pressure growth and reinforce caution heading into Friday’s main event.
The week culminates at the Jackson Hole Symposium, where Fed Chair Jerome Powell will deliver his keynote address on Friday at 10 AM ET.
His remarks carry outsized weight because past Jackson Hole speeches have reset expectations around rates and growth. As it happened, ripple effects spread across equities, bonds, and crypto.
If Powell stresses slowing growth, it would signify a dovish tone. With rate cuts priced in, yields could fall as growth stocks rip, potentially benefiting Bitcoin amid renewed risk appetite.
However, if the Fed chair leans toward sticky inflation, such a hawkish tone could raise yields, outperform cyclicals, and potentially derail Bitcoin’s path higher.
Therefore, markets face multiple catalysts that could steer sentiment for the third quarter. These include the Fed minutes, Jackson Hole, and other US economic signals.
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