Updated on August 20, 2025, 10:00 CET
Takeaway: volatility increasing as the market recalibrates rate cuts
Bitcoin (BTC) loses ground and slides below USD 113,000, with an intraday low around USD 112,565. The Jackson Hole symposium – scheduled at the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City from August 21 to 23, 2025 – brings back into focus the expectations on Fed rates.
In this context, the stakes are clear: the tone of Jerome Powell could reshape the profile of cuts and impact the risk appetite across all assets, including crypto.
According to data collected from public trackers and weekly reports, in recent weeks, inflows into Bitcoin-related products have represented a significant operational driver for price dynamics.
For example, CoinShares recorded net inflows of USD 4.39 billion in the week ending July 21, 2025, an indicator of still strong institutional demand in the digital asset market.
Industry analysts also note that positioning via spot ETFs and volumes near macro events (such as Jackson Hole) are causing more pronounced intraday volatility spikes compared to previous months.
Expected Effects from Powell’s Speech
An accommodative message would tend to support sentiment and riskier assets; conversely, a restrictive stance risks reigniting volatility and favoring new tests of the supports. It should be noted that the market seeks clarity on the timing and depth of the cuts expected throughout 2025, elements that, if detailed, could reduce short-term uncertainty.
Bitcoin price today: why it has fallen and what traders are watching
The break below USD 113,000 reflects a mix of macro variables and technical signals.
On one hand, uncertainty about interest rates pushes to reduce risk exposure; on the other hand, the area USD 112,000–113,000 is considered key to avoid a more marked weakening.
If this support holds until the Jackson Hole interventions, a tactical rebound remains on the table; conversely, a clear violation could trigger cascade sales (for further technical details, see e.g. Investopedia).
Inflation and FedWatch: how expectations are moving
The data on USA inflation remain the cornerstone of the macro framework. The latest report on the CPI (consumer price index), published by the Bureau of Labor Statistics, has contributed to downsize the idea of a rapid easing of rates, pushing operators to recalibrate the implicit probabilities of a cut.
According to the CME FedWatch, the chances of a first cut have decreased after the report, indicating a more cautious attitude.
Consequently, the message that will come from Jackson Hole can confirm or overturn this pricing, with immediate impacts on the dollar, yields, and the entire crypto sector. An interesting aspect is the sensitivity of the markets to even the slightest nuances of language.
Fed Rates and Scenarios at the Symposium
The focus of the discussion concerns the trajectory of interest rates in 2025. A clearer orientation on the timing and speed of the cuts could reduce the short-term “noise” and offer greater visibility to the markets.
- Accommodative scenario: confirmation of cuts in 2025, with attention to growth risks; a scenario that would provide relief for risky assets.
- Neutral scenario: “data-dependent” approach, without new substantial indications; episodic volatility is expected and a market in a phase of waiting.
- Restrictive scenario: emphasis on persistent inflation and the possibility of delaying cuts, with pressure on BTC and on the most sensitive assets.
As mentioned in the latest FOMC statement, “the Committee remains highly attentive to inflation risks” and “will continue to assess incoming information and its implications for monetary policy” (source: Federal Reserve).
Key short-term indicators
- Technical levels BTC: supports at USD 112,000–113,000; resistances at USD 115,500–116,800.
- Macro indicators: CPI data, PCE, unemployment claims; monitoring of yields and the dollar index (DXY).
- Flows: analysis of inflows/outflows in spot ETFs on Bitcoin (tracker: Farside).
- Liquidity: insight into the depth of the order books and the spreads of the main trading platforms, especially near events of greater risk.
- Events: speech by Powell at Jackson Hole and subsequent communications from the Fed.
Expected impact of Fed cuts on BTC
In theory, lower interest rates tend to increase liquidity and risk appetite, conditions that have historically supported high beta assets like Bitcoin. It must be said that the link is not linear: institutional flows (from ETFs, funds, etc.), positioning, the dynamics of real yields, and the global context matter.
Flows and ecosystem: where capital moves
In addition to macroeconomic drivers, the focus remains on the dynamics of spot ETF flows and institutional adoption, monitored through public trackers and regulatory filings.
A recovery in net inflows could directly affect the demand for BTC, while prolonged outflows risk accentuating the fragility of technical supports.
Trackers and weekly reports like that of CoinShares show how changes in weekly inflows (e.g., a record of USD 4.39 billion in the week ending 21/07/2025) can have an immediate impact on the buying/selling pressure towards spot ETFs.
Short-term forecasts: operational scenarios
- If the support holds: possible rebound towards the USD 115–117k area, with high volatility around the event.
- If the support breaks: risk of bearish acceleration, with activation of stops and liquidations, projecting the asset to lower levels.
- Confirmation driver: the tone of Powell, any changes in FedWatch probabilities, the trend of the dollar, and the performance of spot ETFs.
Quick FAQ
How does the CPI affect the crypto markets?
A higher CPI than expected leads the market to price in higher rates for a longer period, reducing the appeal of risky assets. Conversely, a lower CPI tends to favor a greater risk appetite.
Why is Jackson Hole important for Bitcoin?
The symposium offers important policy signals that affect the cost of capital, liquidity, and investor positioning: variables with a direct impact on demand and price of BTC.
Conclusion
Bitcoin is going through a phase of uncertainty where the tone of the Fed can guide the next market directions. With the supports under observation and increasing volatility, the trajectory of monetary cuts remains the main catalyst.
In a matter of hours, the expected interventions at Jackson Hole could redefine expectations on interest rates, dollar, and, consequently, on the entire crypto ecosystem.
Sources
Editorial note: The specific values of the latest CPI (monthly and annual change) and the percentages expressed by the CME FedWatch should be updated as soon as the official data is available, to ensure maximum accuracy (data to be verified).