- Bitcoin faced selling pressure from cohorts of longer-term holders
- The short-term holder (STH) profitability was low, and accumulation from STH was evident
Bitcoin [BTC] saw a move to $108k earlier this month and retraced to touch the $91.5k level on the 30th of January. The rejection above $100k occurred on the back of the U.S. Federal Open Market Committee forecasted just two rate cuts in 2025 instead of four.
Examination of BTC’s exchange reserves showed that they were at the lowest levels since 2016. This was a positive development, leading analysts to conclude that accumulation was the norm and market participants were not gearing up to sell their holdings.
To investigate this claim, other metrics were also probed.
The long-term holders are not yet selling
Source: CryptoQuant
Spent output age bands represent all spent outputs created within specific age bands. Short-term outputs of 1 to 3 months indicate holdings within this window before being spent.
Increased activity in longer age bands signals a bearish trend, as it suggests long-term holders are selling. This pattern was observed on the 8th of October, with increased spending from holdings that were 12 to 18 months old.
Similarly, on the 24th of December, there was a rise in outputs from the 18-month to 2-years and 3-5-years cohorts, supporting the idea that long-term holders have been selling in larger numbers.
Looking at the shorter-period metrics
Source: Santiment
The 30-day and 90-day MVRV ratios have both declined over the past six weeks. During this period, BTC trended above $100k before facing rejection. This downward trend indicates profit-taking activity.
The recent price drop accelerated the fall of the 30-day MVRV, showing that short-term holders are now less profitable than they were two weeks ago.
Read Bitcoin’s [BTC] Price Prediction 2025-26
The Mean Coin Age (365 days) saw a sharp decline over the past two months, while the 90-day Mean Coin Age began trending higher. This indicates that short-term holders are buying more BTC, while long-term holders are moving their coins.
The increased likelihood of selling pressure from long-term holders suggests BTC’s weakness. More losses could follow in the coming weeks, but this does not necessarily signal the end of the bull run.