Key Takeaways
Why did Bitcoin strengthen in Q4?
BTC saw renewed ETF inflows and rising megawhale accumulation, giving it stronger recovery momentum than earlier in the quarter.
What limited Ethereum’s recovery?
ETH inflows improved, but whale activity stayed muted, leaving retail traders to drive spot action and weaken upside stability.
Q4 remained difficult for crypto as Bitcoin and Ethereum extended their bearish stretch. Liquidity thinned after the U.S. government shutdown, and institutions stepped away.
Prices eventually cooled, with BTC climbing above $90k and ETH reclaiming $3k.
Even so, the market’s next question centered on leadership. Would Bitcoin [BTC] or Ethereum [ETH] drive Q4’s recovery?
Bitcoin vs Ethereum: Institutional demand rebounds
One standout so far in Q4 has been the absence of institutional investors for both Ethereum and Bitcoin.
For instance, ETF flows from October showed repeated outflows for BTC and ETH. That changed in late November as spot ETFs posted consecutive Net Inflows.
Source: SoSoValue
On the 25th of November, Bitcoin Spot ETFs recorded $128 million in Net Inflows, and $21 million the day after. When these funds record inflows, it suggests increased institutional demand for Bitcoin.
By contrast, ETH Spot ETFs had faced weeks of outflows.
Source: CoinGlass
In fact, that streak broke as four straight days of Net Inflows totaled $291.78 million. This marked the first clear institutional rebound for ETH in weeks.
That set the stage for whale behavior.
Whales press their edge
Bitcoin megawhales and sharks treated the dip as an entry. Checkonchain data showed Megawhales lifted their 30-day balance change to 103k BTC, last seen in mid-October.
Source: CryptoQuant
Sharks mirrored the move with a 45k BTC increase, hitting a three-week high.
This cohort’s trend shifted to accumulation. Historically, strong whale buying helped stabilize BTC during drawdowns and enabled fast recoveries.
Ethereum told a different story.
Ethereum whales nowhere to be found
Interestingly, Ethereum whales have not returned to the market yet. Instead, retail traders have been mostly active.
CryptoQuant’s Spot Average Order Size chart showed retail-sized orders dominating from the 20th to the 27th of November.
Source: CryptoQuant
When this metric shows retail orders, it indicates increased participation from small-scale traders either on the sell or buy side.
Retail dominance of the Spot market is not always a good sign, as these are emotional market players. Retail tends to follow the speculation, which rises volatility and poses a threat to a sustainable uptrend.
BTC vs ETH, who leads Q4 recovery charts?
Both BTC and ETH posted price recoveries as institutional flows turned positive. ETF inflows restored the missing liquidity that weighed on early Q4.
BTC gained a second advantage with direct whale accumulation. The combination of rising ETF demand and aggressive megawhale buying placed BTC in a stronger position to lead Q4’s rebound.
ETH also benefited from ETF inflows, yet whale inactivity limited its upside potential.
If current conditions held, BTC could attempt a move toward $100k, while ETH could revisit $3.5k with ETF support.