Key Takeaways
Why is it too early to call Bitcoin’s bottom?
Long-term whale distribution is rising, STHs are underwater, and Bitcoin struggles to reclaim $108k, keeping capitulation risk high.
Could a Bitcoin cycle top be forming?
Persistent weakness, recent breaks below $100k, and structural vulnerabilities make a cycle top a real possibility.
Sideways consolidation often sets the stage for a breakout. Bitcoin [BTC] has been trading in a narrow $102k–$104k range over the past four sessions, suggesting that a short-term bottom could be forming.
That said, this cycle is showing a notable shift.
Specifically, long-term on-chain spends from pre-2018 OG holders stand out. Orange shows $100 million dumps, red shows $500 million moves. Overall, in 2025, it’s clear OGs are taking profits as distribution increases.
Source: Glassnode
Put simply, OG Bitcoin spending is creating a key divergence this cycle.
Backing this, Glassnode shows 7y+ whale wallets moving over 1k BTC per hour, marking a higher distribution rate than past cycles. Against this backdrop, it’s too early to call BTC’s bottom, especially given its weak bid.
From a structural view, analysts flag $108k as a critical level. Reclaiming it would signal stabilization. Without it, the market remains vulnerable, and with capitulation risk building, a cycle top could instead materialize.
Bitcoin investors cautious amid conflicting market signals
Bitcoin is at a crossroads, and the path could swing either way.
On-chain, signals are mixed. Roughly a third of BTC supply is underwater, indicating broad losses among holders. At the same time, the Bull Score hit 0 for the first time since early 2020, signaling extreme trader pessimism.
At the same time, with whales in a distribution phase, STHs have little incentive to HODL, given their cost basis sits around $111k (well above BTC’s $103k spot). Psychologically, fear is still dominating the market.
Source: TradingView (BTC/USDT)
In this context, it’s unlikely Bitcoin could recover its 7% weekly losses.
From a technical perspective, the longer BTC fails to reclaim $108k, the more pressure builds on impatient investors, especially with STHs capitulation risk and whale distribution marking a key cycle divergence.
Taken together, the odds of a BTC top can’t be ruled out. If this trend persists, reclaiming $108k becomes a steep challenge, particularly after the recent break below $100k, which exposed structural market vulnerabilities.