 
 
Bitcoin is unlikely to drop below $50k, let alone to $35k, one analyst tweeted on X (formerly Twitter). The largest cryptocurrency by market capitalization is currently trading nervously below $88k at press time, under mounting bearish pressure.
Some analysts have already declared that the bear market has officially arrived and are gearing up for a major buying opportunity near the anticipated market bottom. However, predicting the bottom or the top in a Bitcoin 4-year cycle is easier said than done, with multiple variables affecting the overall outcome. There is also the question of whether the bear market has started at all, or the bull market has just been delayed for the time being.
$35k Bitcoin is Out of the Question?
In a lengthy tweet, Skydolic, a crypto analyst with a strong base, argues against a major price drop in Bitcoin’s valuation. He posted:
“…., I am seeing people talking about $35k levels next year, and it’s absolute rubbish.
Firstly, for Bitcoin to retrace 75% it actually has to fully expand, and this cycle, it just did not do that.
 
Those kinds of retraces are only possible because the level of expansion makes that level of contraction possible.
You can see on the 1M RSI that we barely even touched any degree of overbought, for the first time ever.
Every previous cycle has had huge pushes into the upper band of oversold.
Secondly, even if this is the big bad bear market, Bitcoin has never breached the lower 1M Bollinger bands on its bottom.
And that is currently at $55k….”
He also attached this graph to his descriptive analysis:
According to Skyodelic, the absolute worst-case scenario bottom for this time around would be around the $55k level. This is a much higher figure than those quoted by other analysts, ranging from $45k to as low as $35k.
But, Skyodelic is adamant that such a scenario will not present itself because of two factors:
- Bollinger Bands (BBs) at cycle bottoms have never been breached on the downside. They have acted as a historical floor in previous cycles as well
- The recent ending of the Quantitative Tightening policy in the United States
The Future
BB is considered an important crypto analytical tool that has helped traders predict market crashes and booms over the years. They are popular for analyzing assets with high volatility, which is ideal for BTC, as it often experiences violent contractions and expansions.
However, BTC’s unpredictable nature has a history of shattering previous trends. The 4th quarter of 2025 has so far been the worst in history, and we are approaching a time when the 4-year cycle might become irrelevant, or at least stretched to say the least.