Bitcoin's (BTC) Shrinking Supply Could Set Off the Next Price Surge

As Bitcoin hovers near its May high, new data suggest that there has been a tightening the leading crypto asset’s supply amid surging institutional demand.

Sygnum Bank’s June 2025 Monthly Investment Outlook attributes the asset’s positive momentum to its growing appeal as a safe haven and broader institutional adoption, which are now driving a structural reduction in liquid supply.

Bitcoin Demand Shocks

Over the past 18 months, Bitcoin exchange balances have fallen by one million BTC, which represents a 30% drop, largely due to increased holdings by ETFs and other acquisition vehicles. These instruments are funneling capital from traditional equity and fixed income investors into the crypto space.

The decline in exchange balances is viewed as a bullish signal, which points to a shift toward long-term holding behavior. With more institutional products entering the market and some governments considering adding Bitcoin to their reserves, Sygnum stated that it sees potential for demand shocks and upside volatility. These factors, the bank argued, set the stage for a possible continuation of the current bull cycle.

As institutional adoption drives Bitcoin’s upward trajectory, developments on the government front suggest an expanding role for the asset at the state and national level.

Global Interest in Bitcoin Reserve Adoption Grows

Three US states have recently passed bills supporting the inclusion of Bitcoin in government reserves, with New Hampshire becoming the first to sign such a bill into law. Texas is likely to follow, as the state’s governor has publicly backed the initiative.

International interest is also growing. Pakistan’s government and the Reform UK party – currently leading in British election polls – have both announced plans to explore central bank Bitcoin reserves.

Meanwhile, policy think tanks in China have floated similar proposals, and unconfirmed reports suggest quiet accumulation may already be underway. While no official Bitcoin purchases have begun under these approved frameworks, analysts at Sygnym suggest that actual acquisitions could become a major price catalyst.

The combination of increased demand and the strong signaling effect of state and national entities entering the market may drive broader institutional interest and accelerate Bitcoin’s mainstream adoption.