Journalist
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For years, the halving has been crypto’s version of a calendar. Mark four years, wait for the supply to shrink, expect the price to explode. Simple and familiar…or so you think.
Over time, it’s becoming clear that the halving by itself doesn’t drive Bitcoin’s price like it used to. That doesn’t mean it doesn’t matter.
But we may have to start seeing more.
The halving myth that we know and love
After four cycles and 16 years of data, the idea of a halving is starting to wobble. Here’s something new: Every major post-halving rally has overlapped with an important surge in global liquidity.
Source: X
From the post-QE environment in 2016 to the Fed’s balance-sheet explosion in 2020 and ETF inflows front-running the 2024 event, some of BTC’s biggest price moves never came in isolation.
On the surface, Bitcoin appears to move in clean four-year cycles: roughly 1,064 days of expansion followed by about 364 days of correction. That makes the halving an easy explanation.
Source: X
But there’s more to it.
Big Bitcoin [BTC] moves often happen when money is easy and flowing, and it reacts fast to tight liquidity, as evidenced by what happened in August 2024.
After the Bank of Japan raised rates slightly, Bitcoin dropped about 25% in just three days. That’s not just a halving effect, but also capital reacting to changing conditions.
What will it take to hit $500K?
The halving still matters because it strengthens scarcity.
But, if Bitcoin ever reaches $500,000, it likely won’t be because a halving changed something overnight. It needs liquidity, real demand, and a macro push to bring capital toward scarce assets.
With U.S. debt rising, central banks starting to ease again, and gold at record highs, things may be falling in line for Bitcoin. What you need to remember is took look at more than just the halving patterns to win.
Final Thoughts
- Bitcoin’s halving controls supply, but liquidity is the real $500K trigger.
- Look at more than just the halving schedules to catch Bitcoin’s next major move!