BTC’s Growth Rate Difference has fallen negative, signaling market cap is dropping faster than realized value.
Bitcoin (BTC) is wrestling with the pivotal $100,000 mark, a battle that has exposed significant structural softness in its market foundation.
According to analysts, the outcome of this fight will likely determine the asset’s direction for the coming months, with on-chain data flashing cautionary signals even as some traders anticipate a rebound.
On-Chain Signals Point to Structural Strain
In a detailed breakdown, Rio de Janeiro–based market technician GugaOnChain described Bitcoin’s position at $100,000 as a “turning point,” noting that the level carries both psychological weight and a history of volatile reactions.
“Reaching the psychological barrier of $100,000 represents a crucial moment,” they wrote, adding that traders are split between expecting a renewed push upward ahead of the Federal Reserve rate decision on December 10, and bracing for a drop that resembles a classic “dead cat bounce.”
The centerpiece of GugaOnChain’s warning is the Growth Rate Difference, an on-chain metric derived from the MVRV framework comparing Bitcoin’s market value to its realized value. The figure has fallen to -0.00095, a reading the analyst said showed that “Market Cap is falling faster than Realized Cap.”
This trend, they explained, places Bitcoin below its fundamental growth path, a setup that historically appears near periods of weakening structure.
Mixed Price Outlook
At the time of GugaOnChain’s analysis, Bitcoin was trading around $92,000, well under the level they consider necessary for a firm breakout attempt. According to them, failing to hold nearby supports could open the door to a slide toward $90,000, with deeper cushions sitting between $85,000 and $87,000.
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They stressed that Bitcoin “is at a decisive moment, where confirmation of a new price threshold or a big correction will depend on its ability to sustain a breakout above the $100,000 line.”
Recall that repeated tests of the $93,500 resistance have produced smaller pullbacks each time, suggesting fading sell pressure, a pattern that once hinted at stronger upward potential. Meanwhile, a recent Bitfinex Alpha market note pointed out that heavy deleveraging and short-term holder capitulation may have pushed BTC close to a cycle bottom.
The OG crypto was priced around the $91,500 level at the time of writing, down nearly 2% on the day and just slightly lower over the last week. However, the month-long picture shows a bigger 10% slide, even though it remains up roughly 11% over the past two weeks following its recovery from mid-November lows near $84,000.
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