Key Takeaways
ADA breaks out of bullish pennant, backed by strong spot demand and rising user activity. Elevated NVT and cooling derivatives suggest caution, but $1.60 remains a realistic upside target.
Cardano [ADA] has broken out of a months-long bullish pennant on the daily chart, fueling excitement among ADA holders.
The breakout followed a strong rally and a successful retest of the $0.85 zone, which now acts as a critical support level.
Midway through the move, Cardano traded around $0.80, at press time, eyeing further upside targets at $1.03, $1.17, $1.33, and $1.60. The price structure suggests renewed momentum, supported by strong technical confirmation.
Therefore, this breakout could mark the start of a fresh bullish wave—especially if buyers continue to hold key levels with confidence.
Source: TradingView
Cardano at risk of aggressive spot accumulation?
At the time of writing, Spot Taker CVD on the 90-day window showed “Taker Buy” as the dominant force, underscoring that market participants are executing aggressive buy orders.
This behavior highlights increasing confidence in Cardano’s short-term rally, with buyers willing to pay the ask price rather than wait for dips.
Consequently, the buy-side pressure adds weight to the bullish pennant breakout and could serve as fuel for higher targets.
If this aggressive accumulation persists alongside growing support zones, it may signal strong underlying strength, even in the absence of high leverage positioning.
Source: CryptoQuant
Are rising addresses hinting at growing adoption?
On-chain data showed a clear uptick in participation, with New Addresses climbing by 4.79% and Active Addresses increasing by 11.99% over the past week.
This growth suggests that more users are entering the Cardano ecosystem or reactivating dormant wallets. Historically, increases in wallet activity have aligned with price uptrends and positive sentiment shifts.
Therefore, the rise in address stats supports the bullish narrative and reflects growing interest in ADA beyond just price speculation. If this trend continues, Cardano may experience stronger fundamental support in the coming weeks.
Source: IntoTheBlock
Has Cardano’s NVT Ratio surged too high for comfort?
Cardano’s Network Value to Transactions (NVT) Ratio spiked to 331, at press time, the highest level in months, raising red flags around valuation.
This metric compares market capitalization to transaction volume and often signals whether an asset is overvalued.
A soaring NVT suggests that network activity may not be keeping pace with price increases. Therefore, while the bullish price action is encouraging, traders should remain cautious.
Overextended NVT levels often precede short-term pullbacks, especially if transactional growth does not soon confirm the rally’s legitimacy.
Source: Santiment
The derivatives market paints a picture of cooling momentum. Volume is down by 36.78%, Open Interest has dipped 2.89%, and Options Volume plummeted 92.94%.
These declines reflect a noticeable reduction in leveraged and speculative trading. However, this could indicate that the recent price surge is driven more by spot demand than hype.
Hence, the shift away from speculative positions may provide a healthier setup for sustained growth, as it reduces the risk of long squeezes or abrupt corrections due to over-leveraging.
Can Cardano hit $1.60 or will the rally stall?
Cardano’s breakout and strong spot demand suggest potential for higher prices, including the $1.60 target.
However, the elevated NVT Ratio and fading derivatives’ activity signal caution. Sustaining this rally will require consistent on-chain growth, increasing user activity, and continued Taker Buy dominance.
Without these confirmations, a short-term pullback remains possible. Therefore, while $1.60 is achievable, ADA must maintain its momentum and network strength to reach that level.