Cathie Wood’s billion-dollar investment manager Ark Invest has upped its bull-case Bitcoin price target to as high as $2.4 million by the end of this decade, up from a previous projection of $1.5 million, driven mainly by institutional investors and Bitcoin’s growing acceptance as “digital gold.”
2030 Bitcoin Bull Case
In an April 24 report, Ark Research analyst David Puell wrote that the January 2024 bull case price projection for Bitcoin was around $1.5 million. But using the company’s latest experimental model, which is based on total addressable market and projected market penetration across multiple sectors, Ark has now forecasted a bull-case price of $2.4 million by 2030.
The bull-case projection figure, which is 60% more than Ark’s initial estimate, is based on a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of about 72% from last December through the end of 2030.
Using this new model, which Puell described as more “aggressive” than Ark’s official methodology, the report estimates a BTC price of $1.2 million in the base case and $500,000 in the bear case.
“Institutional investment contributes the most to our bull case,” said Puell, who estimated that Bitcoin would reach a 6.5% penetration rate into the $200 trillion financial market in a best-case scenario (that figure does not include gold).
Bitcoin’s acceptance as digital gold also contributed significantly to the ambitious estimate, with the Ark Invest strategist suggesting that the apex crypto could capture up to 60% of the precious metal’s market cap by the end of 2030 in a bull scenario. Bitcoin’s use as a haven in emerging markets was another major contributor to ARK’s $2.4 million bull case forecast.
Ark Invest also factored adoption for nation-state and corporate treasury holdings into its Bitcoin price predictions.
“We also believe that this more experimental exercise highlights that Bitcoin’s scarcity and lost supply are not reflected in most valuation models today,” Puell added.
Will Bitcoin Rocket By 2,400% By 2030?
At the time of writing, Bitcoin was trading at $95,151, according to data from CoinGecko. Reaching the $2.4 million Bitcoin price tag would represent a 2,426% increase, which would put BTC’s market cap at a whopping $49 trillion.
A $49 trillion valuation would be significantly larger than the combined gross domestic products of the United States and China. It would also position Bitcoin to usurp gold as the largest asset in the world, which currently boasts a market cap of $22 trillion.
While Ark’s prediction reflects their strong belief in Bitcoin, it remains to be seen whether the apex crypto can indeed reach those lofty heights.