Here’s how Bitcoin institutional buying is driving prices toward $100,000 and how a metric is promising more than 100% gains for BTC.
Bitcoin has entered the new year with a powerful surge in demand from the world’s biggest players.
The latest data shows that Bitcoin institutional buying has officially flipped positive and for eight consecutive days, large-scale buyers have snapped up more coins than miners could create.
This trend ends a period of uncertainty that followed a difficult close to the previous year.
Bitcoin Institutional Buying Indicates 110% Average Gains
The Net Institutional Buying metric from Capriole Investments is one of the most reliable tools for tracking market health. It combines purchases from corporate treasuries and spot Bitcoin ETFs.
Since 2020, every time this metric has sustained a positive flip, the BTC price has seen an average upside of 109%. The previous time this happened, the price jumped by a solid 41%.
Institutions are once again net buyers of Bitcoin.
Here’s how it looks in the past.
1⃣ +390%
2⃣ +68%
3⃣ -13%
4⃣ +61%
5⃣ +41%Average gain = 109%
Up 5% so far…
👉 A unique metric only available at @capriole_fund Charts pic.twitter.com/f1rEonK2OE
— Charles Edwards (@caprioleio) January 6, 2026
Capriole founder Charles Edwards noted that institutions are once again net buyers of the asset.
This renewed interest comes after Bitcoin fell nearly 40% from its October high of $126,200.
With this said, large players seem to be taking advantage of these lower prices to accumulate more. Historically, when institutional buying reaches these levels, it creates a supply shock.
There are simply not enough new coins being mined to satisfy the appetite of big firms. This pressure usually forces the price higher as buyers compete for a limited supply.
Analysts Predict a Return to $100,000 This Month
Network economists are adding more fuel to the bullish fire. Timothy Peterson recently shared that history favours a return above $100,000 for Bitcoin this month.
History favors a return above $100,000 for Bitcoin this month.
Bitcoin has had 3 consecutive months of declines. That has only happened 9 times since 2015. What happens next?
1 month later, Bitcoin was positive 67% of the time. However, the 3 negative instances were all in… pic.twitter.com/hAIfYuEak3
— Timothy Peterson (@nsquaredvalue) January 6, 2026
He pointed out that Bitcoin has suffered through three consecutive months of declines. Since 2015, this rare pattern has happened only nine times. In most of those cases, the price was positive just one month later.
While some instances in 2018 led to further drops, the current setup looks different. The numbers now indicate that the bottom is likely in.
Peterson calculated that a relief bounce could lead to a 15% gain from current levels in the short term.
Other analysts are even more optimistic and are eyeing a breakout toward $98,900. If Bitcoin can breach that level, the path to $100,000 becomes much clearer.
Retail Traders Flock to Memecoins and Altcoins
While institutions focus on Bitcoin, retail traders are pouring money into the altcoin market. Trading volume on Pump.fun hit a record $1.27 billion this week.
This explosion in volume shows that the appetite for high-risk assets is back. The CoinDesk Memecoin Index has also already gained 19% since the start of the year.
Other projects are also seeing major gains. For example, SUI jumped more than 15% in a single day. This rally came after a research paper from Mysten Labs about private transactions.
Meanwhile, XRP has extended its strong start to the year with a 29% gain since January 1. Even with these gains, the market continues to trade in “Bitcoin season” according to CoinMarketCap.
This means that Bitcoin is still the main driver of the overall market sentiment.
Related Reading: Grayscale Expects Bitcoin to Hit New High in Early 2026
Derivatives and Market Volatility
To top things off, the derivatives market is showing a strong bullish bias. Liquidations for short positions hit $400 million in the last 24 hours.
This means that many traders expected a price slide that never came.
Funding rates for major assets have also been moderately positive. This indicates that most traders are setting up for further upside.
Open interest in XRP has reached its highest level since October, and this means that fresh capital is flowing into the token.
At the same time, volatility remains relatively calm according to the BVIV index. This calm environment tends to allow a more sustainable price climb.
Instead of a sudden spike and crash, the market may see a slow (but steady) crawl higher.