It’s been quite a wild ride for crypto this year, with bigger players, policy changes, and a change in activity patterns. Some narratives matured, others faded, and a few have set things up for the next year.
To understand where crypto might head in 2026, it’s worth looking closely at what happened in the year gone by.
A year of range-bound reality
At first glance, 2025 looked active. In reality, it was restrained.
Bitcoin spent most of the year oscillating within a wide range, pushing to new highs mid-year before giving up much of those gains by Q4.
Despite periods of faster pace, BTC largely ended the year close to where it began, with a 10% drop YTD.
Source: TradingView
Something similar happened with TOTAL2, which tracks everything except Bitcoin [BTC]. Altcoins put up a brief mid-year recovery, but it failed to stick.
By year-end, TOTAL2 had retraced sharply, going back into a consolidation that erased months of progress.
Source: TradingView
Capital rotated from here to there, but it didn’t expand. Bitcoin held dominance through stability, but the market struggled with handling risk.
Looking ahead, Nischal Shetty, Founder, WazirX, said,
“In 2026, globally, institutional appetite for regulated digital-asset products will continue to increase, driving capital inflows and contributing to market stability.”
He went on to add,
“At the same time, domestic policies for countries will be key in shaping their respective investor sentiment.”
2025: A look at the numbers
Source: SoSoValue
Bitcoin spot ETFs dominated flows in 2025, pulling in steady capital through mid-year before seeing outflows toward year-end.
Source: SoSoValue
Ethereum’s [ETH] spot ETFs followed a similar arc but at a smaller scale.
After the SEC approved generic listing standards for commodity-based crypto trusts in September, the logjam broke.
By year-end, more than a dozen altcoin ETFs had entered the scene, with products tied to assets like Solana [SOL], Ripple’s XRP [XRP], and Litecoin [LTC] being launched.
Source: rwa.xyz
Alongside ETFs, tokenized RWAs climbed past $20 billion, dominated by U.S. Treasury debt and private credit. Canton Network [CC] led issuance by a wide margin, while Ethereum’s role remained smaller but steady.
Source: DeFiLlama
DeFi in 2025 was more about consolidation than anything else.
Ethereum retained dominance, accounting for over two-thirds of total DeFi TVL. Solana strengthened its position as the leading alternative, while BNB Chain [BNB], Tron [TRX], and Arbitrum [ARB] built their share.
Some key regulatory changes this year
The U.S. passed the GENIUS Act, which imposed strict 1:1 reserve requirements for stablecoins. The act mandated regular audits, and explicitly removed certain payment stablecoins from securities and commodities classifications.
The CLARITY Act followed, formally dividing oversight between the SEC and CFTC based on asset function. It also introduced consumer disclosure rules and the concept of “mature blockchains.”
In Europe, MiCA came fully into force, creating a single regulatory framework across all 27 EU states. It set standards for issuers, service providers, and stablecoins, making compliance mandatory for market access.
As far as Asia goes, Hong Kong rolled out a licensing regime for fiat-backed stablecoins in August 2025, requiring full reserves, guaranteed redemptions, and strict AML compliance.
Limited issuer approvals are expected in 2026. Singapore, meanwhile, expanded MAS’s powers under the FIMA Act, giving regulators broader authority to inspect and oversee crypto-derivatives across markets.
Going into the new year…
Follow through will be the most important.
You may want to keep an eye out for whether ETF demand starts pulling sustained liquidity into ETH and select altcoins, not just Bitcoin. RWAs will matter less for their size and more for who uses them.
In DeFi, survival may hinge on revenue as capital grows more selective.
Matt Mena, Crypto Research Strategist at 21Shares, predicted,
“…we expect (this) institutional bid to drive Bitcoin toward a new all-time high of beyond $126K, as surging global M2 supply and expansionary monetary policies solidify its status as an indispensable store of wealth.”
But don’t rest just yet. Regulatory clarity cuts both ways, making underused tokens easier to ignore. Range-bound markets could exhaust retail further, while leverage may come back suddenly.
Until then, happy holidays! We’ll see you next year.
Final Thoughts
- 2025 was a year of rotation, with Bitcoin falling 10% YTD and altcoins failing to breakout.
- Heading into 2026, ETF follow-through, real RWA adoption, and revenue-driven DeFi will matter.