Crypto Industry Veteran Explains When He Will Resume Buying $BTC and $ETH

On Thursday (May 12), Arthur Hayes, Co-Founder and former CEO of crypto derivatives exchange BitMEX, talked about the current state of the crypto market and at what levels he will feel comfortable with buying more Bitcoin and Ethereum.

In a blog post published on May 12, Hayes said:

During a proper meltdown, the market seeks out those indiscriminate sellers and forces their hands. This week’s plunge was accentuated by the forced selling of all Luna Foundation Bitcoin in order to defend the UST:USD peg. As always, they still failed to defend the peg. That’s how all pegs fail in the face of the entropy of the universe.

I dutifully sold my Bitcoin $30,000 and Ether $2,500 June puts. I mainly trade because I enjoy it. I made no alterations to my structurally long crypto positions even though in fiat terms they are losing ‘value’. If anything, I’m evaluating the various altcoins I own and increasing exposure.

I did not expect the market to trade through these levels so quickly. This meltdown happened less than one week after the Fed raised rates to the expected 50bps. Let me repeat the pertinent fact that the market EXPECTED a 50bps hike, and still puked afterwards. This market cannot handle rising nominal rates. It astounds me that anyone can believe long duration risk assets at all-time-high price multiples will not succumb to rising nominal rates. 

US CPI for April came in at 8.3% YoY, which is lower than the previous reading of 8.5% YoY. 8.3% is still too hot to handle, and the Fed in firefighter mode can’t abandon their quixotic quest against inflation. A June 50bps hike is the expectation, and this will continue the destruction of long-duration risky assets.

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The crypto capital markets now must determine who is overexposed to anything Terra-related. Any service offering above average yields that is believed to have any exposure to this melodrama will experience swift outflows. And given that most people never read how any of these protocols actually work in distress scenarios, it will be a sell first, read later exercise. This will continue to weigh on all crypto assets as all investors lose confidence and would rather suck their thumb, clutch their safety blanket, and hold fiat cash.

The crypto capital markets must be allowed time to heal after the blood letting concludes. Therefore it is asinine to attempt to fathom legitimate price targets. But I shall say this, given my macro view about the inevitability of eventually more money printing, I will close my eyes and trust the Lord.

Therefore, I am a buyer at Bitcoin $20,000 and Ether $1,300. These levels roughly correspond to the all-time highs of each asset during the 2017/18 bull market.

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The views and opinions expressed by the author, or any people mentioned in this article, are for informational purposes only, and they do not constitute financial, investment, or other advice. Investing in or trading cryptoassets comes with a risk of financial loss.

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