Caroline Bishop
Nov 05, 2025 10:46
DOGE price drops 1.6% to $0.16 following yesterday’s sharp decline amid broader crypto market weakness and bearish technical signals emerging across multiple timeframes.
Quick Take
• DOGE trading at $0.16 (down 1.6% in 24h)
• Yesterday’s crash to $0.16 marked 47% decline from September peak
• Death cross pattern formation signals potential further weakness
• Bitcoin correlation remains strong as broader crypto markets retreat
Market Events Driving Dogecoin Price Movement
The most significant catalyst affecting DOGE price this week was yesterday’s sharp decline that saw Dogecoin crash to $0.16, representing a dramatic 47% drop from its September highs. This selloff coincided with a broader cryptocurrency market downturn that has pressured most digital assets across the board.
The formation of a death cross pattern—where shorter-term moving averages cross below longer-term ones—has provided a technical catalyst for the bearish momentum. This bearish signal typically indicates potential for continued downside pressure in the coming sessions. Additionally, market participants noted a significant slowdown in Dogecoin ETF inflows, which had previously provided institutional support for DOGE price action.
Despite the recent weakness, some traders remain cautiously optimistic about potential November seasonality patterns. Historical data suggests Dogecoin has experienced notable rallies during November in previous years including 2015, 2017, 2020, and 2024. However, current market conditions appear to be overriding these seasonal tendencies as risk-off sentiment dominates trading decisions.
DOGE Technical Analysis: Oversold Conditions Emerge
Price Action Context
DOGE price currently sits well below all major moving averages, with the token trading at $0.16 compared to the 20-day SMA at $0.19 and 50-day SMA at $0.22. This positioning indicates sustained selling pressure and suggests the path of least resistance remains to the downside in the near term. The correlation with Bitcoin’s weakness continues to weigh on Dogecoin technical analysis as the broader crypto market struggles to find meaningful support levels.
Trading volume on Binance spot market reached $462 million over the past 24 hours, indicating heightened activity during the decline but not the explosive volume typically seen during major reversals.
Key Technical Indicators
The RSI reading of 31.23 places Dogecoin in oversold territory, though this alone doesn’t guarantee an immediate bounce given the strength of the current downtrend. The MACD histogram at -0.0018 confirms bearish momentum remains intact, while the stochastic oscillators (%K at 19.07, %D at 17.37) similarly reflect oversold conditions.
Most concerning for bulls is Dogecoin’s position relative to the Bollinger Bands, with the %B reading of -0.0518 indicating DOGE price is trading below the lower band—a sign of potentially extended selling pressure.
Critical Price Levels for Dogecoin Traders
Immediate Levels (24-48 hours)
• Resistance: $0.21 (coincides with upper Bollinger Band and represents first major hurdle)
• Support: $0.15 (immediate support that held during today’s session)
Breakout/Breakdown Scenarios
A break below the $0.15 support level could trigger accelerated selling toward the $0.10 strong support zone, representing the 52-week low area. Conversely, any recovery attempt would need to reclaim the $0.19 middle Bollinger Band (20-day SMA) to suggest the selling pressure is moderating.
DOGE Correlation Analysis
Dogecoin continues to trade in close correlation with Bitcoin, which is also experiencing downward pressure today. This relationship has intensified during periods of market stress, limiting DOGE’s ability to establish independent bullish momentum. Traditional markets including the S&P 500 have shown mixed signals, though risk-off sentiment in equities generally corresponds with crypto weakness.
The broader meme coin sector has similarly struggled, with most tokens in this category experiencing comparable percentage declines over the past week.
Trading Outlook: Dogecoin Near-Term Prospects
Bullish Case
A sustained move above $0.19 (20-day SMA) would represent the first sign that selling pressure is easing. Target levels include the $0.21 resistance zone and eventually the $0.22 level (50-day SMA) if momentum builds. Bitcoin stabilization would be crucial for any meaningful DOGE recovery.
Bearish Case
Failure to hold the $0.15 support opens the door for a test of yearly lows near $0.14. The death cross pattern suggests this bearish scenario carries higher probability in the immediate term. Continued ETF outflows would compound downside pressure.
Risk Management
Given the current volatility (ATR of $0.01), traders should consider stop-losses below $0.14 for long positions. Position sizing should account for the potential for continued high volatility as technical patterns play out and seasonal factors compete with broader market headwinds.
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