According to the global macro director of Fidelity Investments, Jurrien Timmer, there might soon be a handover from gold to BTC.
He stated it a few days ago on his personal X profile, with a tweet dedicated specifically to the relationship between the trend of the gold price and that of Bitcoin over the last seven years.
BTC vs. gold: Fidelity’s analysis
In the chart published by the director of Fidelity, there are two curves that represent the performance of BTC over time in orange, and that of gold multiplied by 4 times in yellow. In fact, the average volatility of gold is much lower compared to that of Bitcoin, so in order to discern some type of connection between the two curves, it is necessary to expand the performance of gold by four times.
The chart also shows two other curves at the bottom, namely the Sharpe Ratio of gold, in purple, and that of Bitcoin, in blue.
Timmer comments saying that ironically gold and bitcoin are inversely correlated with each other, given that lately the two assets have alternated, as is evident from the comparison of the two Sharpe Ratio indices.
Then, however, he adds:
“Apparently, it might be bitcoin’s turn to take the lead, given that its Sharpe ratio is -0.40 while that of gold is 1.33. So maybe it’s time for a handover from gold to Bitcoin”.
The timing
Timmer does not specify the timing of this hypothetical handover, but by analyzing the comparison between the two Sharpe Ratios, something can be deduced about it.
First of all, it should be emphasized that from 2018 until today, there have already been about ten handovers of this type.
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For example, in November, after the electoral victory of Trump, the Sharpe Ratio of Bitcoin had soared above 1.5, while that of gold had fallen below zero. However, there was a passing of the baton with the Sharpe Ratio of Bitcoin dropping to current lows, and that of gold rising above 1.3 points.
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Note that from this point of view during 2024 there was also another previous handover in April, with Bitcoin’s Sharpe Ratio dropping to -0.4 and that of gold rising above 1. In other words, there were two handovers in 2024 and one in 2025, so it is reasonable to expect another one within a few months.
Choosing them both
In a previous tweet, published last week, Timmer in fact suggested not to choose between Bitcoin and gold, but to have both.
Showing in particular the chart of the ratio between the price of Bitcoin and that of gold, he commented by saying that he sees them as different players on the same team, even though he believes there is no “right” percentage in a portfolio for BTC and gold, because depending on the risk appetite of individual investors, such a question has different answers for each of them.
However, Timmer considers a good starting point a 4 to 1 ratio between gold and BTC in the portfolio, precisely because the volatility of gold is a quarter of that of Bitcoin, with Sharpe ratios.
On the same day, he had posted another tweet in which he stated that he believes Bitcoin is slightly different from gold, as it has a Dr. Jekyll and Mr. Hyde personality. In fact, sometimes it appears as exponential gold (cash and store of value), other times as a speculative asset similar to the Nasdaq.
The very in-depth analysis by Timmer, also accompanied by numerous other tweets on the subject, shows how gold clearly appears as a protection against market uncertainties, unlike Bitcoin which does not behave as such.
Despite this, however, they have some kind of connection, even if probably not direct but linked in turn to the underlying trend of the financial markets, and in particular of liquidity.
The differences between BTC and gold according to Fidelity
On one hand, therefore, there is gold, which offers stability and shelter from uncertainties, while on the other hand, there is Bitcoin, which does not offer stability and shelter but greater opportunities, at least in theory.
Both, however, are deeply connected to the performance of financial markets, and in particular to the liquidity in the markets, but they react differently, precisely because of their different nature as risk-off asset, gold, and risk-on asset, BTC.
They are in fact two different players who play on the same team in the same matches, but in a different way from each other. Bitcoin seems more like an attacker, while gold seems more like a defender. Moreover, it should be remembered that generally matches are not won only in attack, because indeed a good defense is often a necessary condition to avoid being overwhelmed by opponents.